http://lists.repec.org/mailman/listinfo/nep-all All new papers 2012-02-08 Kyle Fluegge http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2012-03&r=all We present and evaluate a numerical optimization method (together with an algorithm for choosing the starting values) pertinent to the constrained optimization problem arising in the estimation of the GARCH models with inequality constraints, in particular the Simplied Component GARCH Model (SCGARCH), together with algorithms for the objective function and analytical gradient computation for SCGARCH. Matt P. Dziubinski 2012-01-25 Constrained optimization, GARCH, infeasibility, inference under constraints, nonlinear programming, performance of numerical algorithms, SCGARCH, sequential quadratic programming http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2012-02&r=all Non-standard distributional approximations have received considerable attention in recent years. They often provide more accurate approximations in small samples, and theoretical improvements in some cases. This paper shows that the seemingly unrelated "?many instruments asymptotics" ?and "?small bandwidth asymptotics" ?share a common structure, where the object determining the limiting distribution is a V-statistic with a remainder that is an asymptotically normal degenerate U-statistic. This general structure can be used to derive new results. We employ it to obtain a new asymptotic distribution of a series estimator of the partially linear model when the number of terms in the series approximation possibly grows as fast as the sample size. This alternative asymptotic experiment implies a larger asymptotic variance than usual. When the disturbance is homoskedastic, this larger variance is consistently estimated by any of the usual homoskedastic-consistent estimators provided a "?degrees-of-freedom correction?" is used. Under heteroskedasticity of unknown form, however, none of the commonly used heteroskedasticity-robust standard-error estimators are consistent under the "?many regressors asymptotics"?. We characterize the source of this failure, and we also propose a new standard-error estimator that is consistent under both heteroskedasticity and ?"many regressors asymptotics"?. A small simulation study shows that these new confidence intervals have reasonably good empirical size in finite samples. Matias D. Cattaneo, Michael Jansson, Whitney K. Newey 2012-01-20 partially linear model, many terms, adjusted variance. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2012-05&r=all This paper presents a Melitz-type model of international trade in final goods and Grossman-Hart-Antràs input sourcing by heterogeneous firms. We show how firms self-select into different organizational forms in a continuum of industries with different characteristics. Next, we show how a liberalization of trade leads to short run increases in the number of firm mergers and acquisitions and potentially new gains from trade. Finally, we show how the relative prevalence of integrating firms is increasing in some industries while constant in all others. Peter Arendorf Bache, Anders Laugesen 2012-01-26 international trade, firm heterogeneity, make-or-buy decision, export behavior, productivity gains, M&As http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2012-04&r=all We find evidence that workforce educational diversity promotes entrepreneurial behavior of employees as well as the formation of new firms, whereas diversity in demographics hinders transitions to selfemployment. Ethnic diversity favors entrepreneurship in financial and business services. Marianna Marino, Pierpaolo Parrotta, Dario Pozzoli 2012-01-04 Labor diversity, entrepreneurship, transitions to self-employment http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:201201&r=all "The so-called 'One-Euro-Jobs' are an important workfare program for unemployed persons receiving benefits according to Germany's Social Code II ('Sozialgesetzbuch Zweites Buch'), aiming at needy benefit recipients who can not be integrated into regular employment by means of other active labor market measures. This study evaluates the employment effects of these 'One-Euro-Jobs' for the city of Munich. The authors use administrative data and apply propensity score matching to estimate the treatment effects on the following outcomes: regular employment and neediness according to Social Code II. Our empirical results show that in Munich not only persons marginally attached to the labor market are allocated to One-Euro-Jobs. Moreover, One-Euro-Jobs decrease the participants' employment prospects significantly compared to similar non-participants, while unemployment benefit II receipt is increased due to participation. Additionally, we can show that One-Euro-Jobs partly financed by the city of Munich yield results worse than programs lacking communal co-financing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Koch, Susanne, Fertig, Michael 2012-01-20 Arbeitsgelegenheit - Erfolgskontrolle, berufliche Reintegration, Arbeitslosengeld II-Empfänger, Wirkungsforschung, Arbeitsmarktchancen, Geschlechterverteilung, Propensity Score Matching, Job-Center, Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien, Teilnehmerstruktur, Altersstruktur, München, Bundesrepublik Deutschland http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1184&r=all Based on representative data, the German Micro-Census, we provide an overview of the development of self-employment and entrepreneurship in Germany between 1991 and 2010, the first two decades after reunification. We investigate the socioeconomic background of these individuals, their education, previous employment status, and their income level. We observe a unique increase in self-employment in Germany by 40 percent which can partly be attributed to the transformation process of East Germany and to the shift to the service sector. We notice a yearly start-up rate of 1 percent among the working population (almost 20 percent of them being restarters), a decision that pays for the majority of individuals in terms of income. Contrary to other countries, in Germany there is a positive relationship between educational levels and the probability of starting a business. Michael Fritsch, Alexander Kritikos, Alina Rusakova 2012 Entrepreneurship, self-employment, start-ups, Germany http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:dumas-00662070&r=all Le modèle de gravité construit dans cette étude a permis d'estimer le potentiel de commerce dans l'UMA. L'objectif de l'étude était d'obtenir un aperçu du niveau des échanges dans cette zone par rapport au commerce potentiel. Il ressort au terme de ce rapport qu'il existe un potentiel non négligeable, exploitable pourvu que les obstacles aux échanges soient levés. Albert Millogo 2011-09-02 potentiel de commerce, Union du Maghreb Arabe, UMA, modèle de gravité, commerce international, intégration régionale http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:dumas-00662320&r=all The aim of this report is to analyze the Socially Responsible Investment in the USA from the shareholder's point of view. Based on the rule 14a-8, dissatisfied investors or activists may submit proposal to be implemented in order to improve social, societal and environmental performances of a firm; they may change the firm strategy through their proposals. The internship mission consisted of updating a database from 1997 to 2007. This database results from the merging of two databases; one with data from 1997 to 2004, and one containing new data from 2005 to 2007. Observations are made from this constructed database containing nature of 3,428 filed resolutions, targeted companies, resolution's outcomes and filers. Empirical analysis reveals that while religious and individual investors are becoming less present, resolutions submitted by mutual funds, public pension funds and advocacy groups come at the front of the stage. In the same way, propositions concerning abortion and contraception and tobacco and military involvement are getting less important whereas energy and environment, animal rights and political involvement questions are increasing. Assuming that Socially Responsible Investment is a growing phenomenon, this report contributes to knowledge about the nature of the resolutions and their vote, and the involvement of filers. Laura Martinez 2011-09-26 shareholder advocacy, social policy, shareholder activism, social policy resolutions, socially responsible investment, SRI, USA, corporate social responsibility http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:dumas-00662055&r=all Le but de notre travail consistait dans un premier temps à revisiter les soubassements théoriques du capital humain et savoir si l'augmentation du capital humain a un effet ponctuel sur la croissance économique (aussi bien dans la sphère des pays industrialisés que dans celle des pays en développement). Dans un second temps, il consistait à mesurer la politique du Sénégal en terme de capital humain : mesurer les efforts de financement de l'éducation d'une part et d'autre part, voir si ces efforts financiers aboutissent à des résultats probants en termes d'insertion économique et productive, de réduction des inégalités et de lutte efficace et durable contre la pauvreté. Youssouph Ba 2011-09-15 capital humain, croissance économique, emploi, insertion productive, dépenses d'éducation, pauvreté, Sénégal, réduction des inégalités http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00653090&r=all Public-Private Partnership has been high on the agenda of public decision makers since the 1990's. Primarily a contractual approach to the delivery of infrastructures, goods and services traditionally provided by the public sector or by private operators submitted to tight regulation, PPP is also a very special contractual practice as it seeks to introduce market-type relationships in a context in which non-market forces play a major role. An important consequence is the overlapping of decision rights as well as property rights, which exposes PPP to a double alignment problem, organizational and institutional. Away from the ideological controversies about the legitimacy of PPP in provisioning public goods, this chapter focuses on problems rooted in the very nature of PPPs and the actual design of their supportive contracts, as well as in the institutions in which they are embedded and that define the capacity to implement and monitor these arrangements properly. Claude Ménard 2011-10-28 Public-Private Partnership; transaction costs; organization; infrastructures; misalignment http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00643900&r=all Modified Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model is employed, combining with Hamilton (1989) type Markov regime switching framework, to study foreign exchange rates, where all parameter values depend on the value of a continuous time Markov chain. Basing on real data of some foreign exchange rates, the Expectation-Maximization algorithm is extended to this more general model and it is applied to calibrate all parameters. We compare the obtained results regarding to results obtained with non regime switching models and notice that our results match much better the reality than the others without Markov switching. Furthermore, we illustrate our model on various foreign exchange rate data and clarify some significant eco- nomic time periods in which financial or economic crisis appeared, thus, regime switching obtained. Stéphane Goutte, Benteng Zou 2012-01-21 Foreign exchange rate; Regime switching model; calibration; financial crisis http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_01&r=all Using the longest data set on FX order flow to date, along with the broadest coverage of currencies to date, we examine the effect of FX order flow on exchange rates across small and large currencies, currencies with floating or fixed regimes, and across both tranquil and turbulent periods. Over our 15 years of data for eleven Asian and Australasian currencies, we find that order flow has a potentially strong impact on all exchange rates in the sample. The effect is strongest on floating exchange rates, both economically and statistically, but is sizeable also on the other exchange rates, especially during periods of turbulence. By creating a measure of regional order flow, we show that all exchange rates depreciate as flows are moved out of Asia/Australasia and into US dollars. This is true both across regimes and if their own flow is not included in the structure of the regional flow. Dagfinn Rime, Hans Jørgen Tranvåg 2012-01-11 Order flow, microstructure, Asian and Australasian exchange rates, financial crises http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aia:ginidp:dp20&r=all Many studies on the consequences of income inequality find that where inequality is high, trust is low. There are, however, reasons to examine the relation between inequality and trust more closely. First, previous research does not differentiate between the effect of income inequality and that of national wealth. Furthermore, the underlying mechanism is often unclear. Finally, the association might be dependent on non-Western countries where income inequality is extremely high. In this paper, we evaluate whether there is a relation between income inequality and trust in a sample of Western developed economies when taking into account national wealth. Theoretically, we distinguish between stratification effects and perception effects of inequality. Empirically, besides actual income inequality and national wealth, we include a measurement of perceived inequality on the basis of individual level earnings estimations for stereotypical jobs. We find no significant effect of inequality on trust when taking into account national wealth, suggesting that in Western countries the amount of resources rather than its distribution explains trust. Key words: trust, income inequality, perceived inequality, national wealth, comparative research. Sander Steijn, Bram Lancee 2011-11 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aia:aiaswp:wp115&r=all Labor market flexibility continues to be one of economics, politics and society highly debated topic. In recent years, the impact of increased labor market flexibility on research and innovation has gained more and more attention. Previous studies have shown, depending on the measurement of flexibility as well as on the data that both positive and negative influences can be found. However, the financial flexibility in terms of wage rigidities has hardly been explored empirically. With the use of a unique dataset combining comprehensive information from both employers and employees we can accomplish variables not only to numerical and functional, but also to financial wage flexibility. In a panel probit model, we show that the influences of most of the indicators of wage flexibility are positive and vary by type of innovation. While the variables of wage bargaining has a higher impact on process innovations, information about specific wage levels, however, affects in particular the development of new products. The same applies to a separate consideration of wage bargaining levels. Aspects of numerical and functional labor market flexibility, in contrast, act negative on all types of innovation. Thereby, part time employees affect particularly processes, while flexible employment contracts have a stronger influence on product innovations. It seems that new products depend more on employment status and the resulting motivation of the employees. Eva Wachsen, Blind, K. 2011-12 Labor market flexibility, innovation, wages, collective bargaining http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:41660&r=all China’s long-term economic dynamics pose a formidable challenge to economic historians. The Qing Empire (1644-1911), the world’s largest national economy prior to the 19th century, experienced a tripling of population during the 17th and 18th centuries with no signs of diminishing per capita income. In some regions, the standard of living may have matched levels recorded in advanced regions of Western Europe. However, with the Industrial Revolution a vast gap emerged between newly rich industrial nations and China’s lagging economy. Only with an unprecedented growth spurt beginning in the late 1970s has the gap separating China from the global leaders been substantially diminished, and China regained its former standing among the world’s largest economies. This essay develops an integrated framework for understanding this entire history, including both the long period of divergence and the more recent convergent trend. The analysis sets out to explain how deeply embedded political and economic institutions that had contributed to a long process of extensive growth subsequently prevented China from capturing the benefits associated with new technologies and information arising from the Industrial Revolution. During the 20th century, the gradual erosion of these historic constraints and of new obstacles created by socialist planning eventually opened the door to China’s current boom. Our analysis links China’s recent economic development to important elements of its past, while using the success of the last three decades to provide fresh perspectives on the critical obstacles undermining earlier modernization efforts, and their removal over the last century and a half. Brandt, Loren, Ma, Debin, Rawski, Thomas G. 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:41659&r=all This study finds that the development process of the Kiryu silk weaving district in Japan from 1895 to 1930 can be divided at least into the two phases, i.e., Smithian growth based on the inter-firm division of labor using hand looms and Schumpeterian development based on factory system using power looms. Weaving manufacturers-cum-contractors led Smithian growth by organizing sub-contracts with out-weavers in rural villages and grew faster than factory production systems. Newly emerged joint stock firms played a role of genuine entrepreneurs by realizing significant scale economies. During this new phase, weaving manufacturers-cum-contractors survived and also introduced new production system. Hashino, Tomoko, Otsuka, Keijiro 2012-01 industrial district; production organizations; weaving industry; 20th century Japan; economic development http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2012-02&r=all Although dominated by public sector banks, India already had a significant presence of private domestic banks and foreign banks. What the banking reforms have done is to create a more level playing field where banks of different ownership types compete within a new set of broad (and far more relaxed) regulations. Data on the performance of the three different categories of banks over the past two decades offer an opportunity to assess to what extent the regulatory changes have improved the productive efficiency of the banking sector in India. Apart from analyzing the standard descriptive measures of performance, this paper uses the nonparametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis to measure total factor productivity growth and its components to assess the impact of liberalization on different ownership categories of banks in India. The broad conclusion is that it is possible to promote financial soundness by introducing proper prudential norms and to improve operational efficiency without wholesale privatization by allowing competition between public, private and foreign banks. This can be a valuable lesson for other developing countries. JEL Classification: G21, C61 Key words: Banking Reforms, Data Envelopment Analysis, Efficiency Analysis Subhash Ray 2011-11 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1203&r=all We study the welfare effects of government-backed FDIs in Africa’s farmlands. We build an occupational choice model featuring four mechanisms driving these effects. First, local farming is subject to social arrangements prescribing that farmers share their crop surplus with kin. Second, proceeds from land investment deals are invested to make modern inputs affordable to local farmers. Third, these deals cause some farmers to shift to wage employment. Fourth, they also entrench export-oriented agriculture, at the expense of local markets. We show that three conditions are sufficient for such deals to make local people better off: (i) the state has a high capacity and willingness to negotiate deals that benefit local people; (ii) these deals create enough jobs; (iii) wage employment make displaced farmers better off. Fulfilling these three conditions, however, may conflict with the interests of profit-maximizing foreign investors. Sylvain Dessy, Gaston Gohou, Désiré Vencatachellum 2012 FDIs in farmland, local populations, welfare http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1202&r=all We build a political economy model of state policy choice highlighting the challenges to breaking barriers to the adoption of inclusive policies in Africa. We highlight necessary and sufficient conditions for a political leader to gain from implementing exclusive policies: (i) Implementing inclusive policies must be risky; (ii) the political leader must have adequate access to an overseas’ financial safe haven as a technology for protecting the spoils from implementing exclusive policies, or investing the looted funds in the domestic economy must sufficiently contribute to mitigate the risk of a revolution. Our results suggest that breaking barriers to inclusive policies in Africa is not an easy task. Bans on international money-laundering schemes may not be sufficient if domestic money laundering is easy and sufficiently discrete. Sylvain Dessy, Stéphane Pallage, Désiré Vencatachellum 2012 Inclusive policies, social exclusion, rebellion, financial safe havens, development http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eim:papers:h201202&r=all After 1989, radical changes in the level of entrepreneurial activity have taken place in the Central and East European (CEE) region countries, transitioning from the communist to a market economy system. In this paper we explore these developments at the macro level of countries. In particular, we investigate developments in business ownership rates in four CEE transition economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic) in the period 1989-2008, and compare them with developments in other OECD countries. To this end we make use of EIM’s COMPENDIA data base, which contains harmonized data on the number of business owners in OECD countries. Data for the four CEE region countries under consideration have recently been added to COMPENDIA. Our analysis reveals that, since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, business ownership rates in the four CEE countries have been converging rapidly towards the levels of other OECD countries, and more specifically, Western European countries. This shows that the communist system did not have prolonged negative effects on the private business sector in these four countries. Instead, based on their institutional and cultural roots, or ‘civilization fundamentals’, these CEE countries were able to rebuild the entrepreneurial sector in a relatively short period of transition. Finally, in spite of the general trend of convergence towards Western European countries, we also find sizable differences among these four CEE countries in the level and development of business ownership since 1989. André van Stel, J. Cieslik Cieslik 2012-01-23 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-001&r=all This article provides a discussion of Clements and Galvão’s “Forecasting with Vector Autoregressive Models of Data Vintages: US output growth and inflation.” Clements and Galvão argue that a multiple-vintage VAR model can be useful for forecasting data that are subject to revisions. Clements and Galvão draw a “distinction between forecasting future observations and revisions to past data,” which brings yet another real time data issue to the attention of forecasters. This comment discusses the importance of taking data revisions into consideration and compares the multiple-vintage VAR approach of Clements and Galvão to a state-space approach. Tara M. Sinclair 2012-01 Real time data, Evaluating forecasts, Forecasting practice, Time series, Econometric models http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6279&r=all Many organizations rely on teamwork, and yet field evidence on the impacts of team-based incentives remains scarce. Compared to individual incentives, team incentives can affect productivity by changing both workers' effort and team composition. We present evidence from a field experiment designed to evaluate the impact of rank incentives and tournaments on the productivity and composition of teams. Strengthening incentives, either through rankings or tournaments, makes workers more likely to form teams with others of similar ability instead of with their friends. Introducing rank incentives however reduces average productivity by 14%, whereas introducing a tournament increases it by 24%. Both effects are heterogeneous: rank incentives only reduce the productivity of teams at the bottom of the productivity distribution, and monetary prize tournaments only increase the productivity of teams at the top. We interpret these results through a theoretical framework that makes precise when the provision of team-based incentives crowds out the productivity enhancing effect of social connections under team production. Bandiera, Oriana, Barankay, Iwan, Rasul, Imran 2012-01 rank incentives, team-based incentives, teams, tournaments http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6278&r=all This paper addresses the question to which extent the complementarity between education and training can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics, i.e. to individual, job and firm specific characteristics. The novelty of this paper is to analyze previously unconsidered characteristics, in particular, personality traits and tasks performed at work which are taken into account in addition to the standard individual specific determinants. Results show that tasks performed at work are strong predictors of training participation while personality traits are not. Once working tasks and other job related characteristics are controlled for, the skill gap in training participation drops considerably for off-the-job training and vanishes for on-the-job training. Görlitz, Katja, Tamm, Marcus 2012-01 training, personality traits, working tasks, Oaxaca decomposition http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6277&r=all Substantial evidence suggests the behavioral relevance of social preferences and also the importance of social influence effects ("peer effects"). Yet, little is known about how peer effects and social preferences are related. In a three-person gift-exchange experiment we find causal evidence for peer effects in voluntary cooperation: agents' efforts are positively related despite the absence of material payoff interdependencies. We confront this result with major theories of social preferences which predict that efforts are unrelated, or negatively related. Some theories allow for positively-related efforts but cannot explain most observations. Conformism, norm following and considerations of social esteem are candidate explanations. Thöni, Christian, Gächter, Simon 2012-01 social preferences, voluntary cooperation, peer effects, reflection problem, gift exchange, conformism, social norms, social esteem http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:34830&r=all We examine the performance of maize import policy options in one of the poorest countries in Southern Africa. The results are shaped by unique features of Zambia’s maize market: production that is limited by risk and highly variable returns, and local marketing margins that increase with imports and limit consumer trade gains. Results suggest that the market-stabilizing protection with the variable import levy (VL) may improve welfare, compared free trade or the current tariff regime. The VL also redistributes benefits to farmers and rural residents and away from urban consumers. Tax revenues could be used to fund transportation improvements or an urban consumer subsidy. Also, we estimate that market-led improvements in transport infrastructure, which would be conducive to more open trade policies, may be 25 years away. Gallagher, Paul W. 2012-01-24 Maize Policy; Zambia; Food Security; Variable Levy http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201128&r=all This paper investigates the factors that drive and constrain remittance inflows into SubSaharan Africa (SSA) using annual data for 35 SSA countries from 1980 to 2008, generalised method of moments by Arellano and Bover (1995) and LSDV with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) corrected standard errors. We find that when cross-sectional dependence of the error term and individual effects are controlled for, host country economic conditions override home country income in driving remittances to SSA The quality of financial service delivery and investment opportunities in the home country and exchange rate considerations are also significant to remittance inflows to SSA. This is more consistent with self interest motives for remittance inflows than altruism. However there are country level differences. Francis Kemegue, Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere, Renee van Eyden 2011-11 Migration, remittances, Sub-Saharan Africa http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sulcis:2012_001&r=all This paper studies to what extent immigrants have less access to main- stream credit than their native counterparts. For this purpose I use a large, unique data set with a panel of Swedish pawnshop customers. The data al- low me to investigate to what extent pawnshop customers actively apply for mainstream bank credit and how successful they are by comparing credit ap- plications from immigrants and natives and the corresponding bank decisions. I do not …nd that immigrants have a di¤erent propensity to apply for main- stream bank credit. However, I do …nd that banks have a lower propensity to grant loans to immigrants from African descent compared to their Nordic-born counterparts. Robustness tests based on data from recent immigrants only suggest that the demand for credit varies with the duration of residence while di¤erences in loan-granting rates are enduring. Bos, Marieke 2012-01-24 Consumer credit; lending policy; alternative credit; pawn credit; immigrants http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2012_003&r=all According to the news model of asset price determination, only the unexpected component of an information should drive the stock price. We use the Danish publicly listed football club Brøndby IF to analyze how match outcome impacts the stock price. To disentangle gross news from net news, betting odd information is used to control for the expected match outcome. Jørgensen, Casper W., Moritzen, Mark R., Stadtmann, Georg 2012-01-05 News model; football industry; betting odds; stock market; market efficiency; event study http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2011_009&r=all Tax and public service competition between local governments concerning localisation of new residents is analysed in a setting of economic spillovers which means that also a neighbouring region will benefit from localisation via demand of residents in a border region, (a so-called host region). We identify two basic Nash-equilibrium outcomes of the analysed tax-game. In one of these outcomes local tax rates will be different across the regions – a fact that appears important for (future) empirical studies of local tax competition. Due to the lack of adequate theoretical modelling, studies in this field have often demonstrated spatial dependence of local policy variables without identifying the source of interaction between decision-makers. Our theoretical findings prove to be robust to a range of important expansions of the basic simple framework. Lauridsen, Jørgen, Nannerup, Niels, Skak, Morten 2011-12-01 Local tax competition; household locational choice; spillover effects; Nash-equilibria http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2011_010&r=all t is well-known that the prenucleolus on the class of TU games is characterized by singlevaluedness, covariance under strategic equivalence, anonymity, and the reduced game property. We show that the prenucleolus on the class of TU games restricted to the connected coalitions with respect to communication structures may be characterized by the same axioms and a stronger version of independence of non-connected coalitions requiring that the solution does not depend on the worth of any non-connected coalition. Similarly as in the classical case, it turns out that each of the five axioms is logically independent of the remaining axioms and that an infinite universe of potential players is necessary. Moreover, a suitable definition and characterization of a prekernel for games with communication structures is presented. Khmelnitskaya, Anna B., Sudhölter, Peter 2011-12-10 TU game; solution concept; communication and conference structure; nucleolus http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2012_002&r=all The variable returns to scale data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is developed with a maintained hypothesis of convexity in input-output space. This hypothesis is not consistent with standard microeconomic production theory that posits an S-shape for the production frontier, i.e. for production technologies that obey the Regular Ultra Passum Law. Consequently, measures of technical efficiency assuming convexity are biased downward. In this paper, we provide a more general DEA model that allows the S-shape. Olesen, Ole B., Ruggiero, John 2012-01-04 Data envelopment analysis; homothetic production; S-shaped production function; non-convex production set http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2012_001&r=all Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit significant nonlinear dynamics. The empirical results are based on a new data set from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations in the neighborhood of the fundamental value, whereas expectations tend to be stabilizing in the presence of substantial oil price misalignment. Reitz, Stefan, Rülke, Jan-Christoph, Stadtmann, Georg 2012-01-03 Agent based models; nonlinear expectations; survey data http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2012_004&r=all We consider several related set extensions of the core and the anticore of games with transferable utility. An efficient allocation is undominated if it cannot be improved, in a specific way, by sidepayments changing the allocation or the game. The set of all such allocations is called the undominated set, and we show that it consists of finitely many polytopes with a core-like structure. One of these polytopes is the L1-center, consisting of all efficient allocations that minimize the sum of the absolute values of the excesses. The excess Pareto optimal set contains the allocations that are Pareto optimal in the set obtained by ordering the sums of the absolute values of the excesses of coalitions and the absolute values of the excesses of their complements. The L1-center is contained in the excess Pareto optimal set, which in turn is contained in the undominated set. For three-person games all these sets coincide. These three sets also coincide with the core for balanced games and with the anticore for antibalanced games. We study properties of these sets and provide characterizations in terms of balanced collections of coalitions. We also propose a single-valued selection from the excess Pareto optimal set, the min-prenucleolus, which is defined as the prenucleolus of the minimum of a game and its dual. Derks, Jean, Peters, Hans, Sudhölter, Peter 2012-01-06 Transferable utility game; core; anticore; core extension; min-prenucleolus http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000439:009269&r=all El sector de servicios petroleros provee los bienes, servicios y sistemas que permiten a las compañías del sector petrolero desarrollar las etapas de la cadena productiva, desde la exploración de reservas y construcción de pozos, producción, refinación y distribución de petróleo y gas. El sector se caracteriza por constituir una fuerza de trabajo y tecnología especializada, que permite a las operadoras responder a las necesidades cambiantes de la industria del petróleo, lo cual lo convierte en el eje central de la actividad petrolera. ¿Cuál es, entonces, su impacto sobre la economía colombiana y sobre la economía de las regiones bajo su influencia? Este estudio caracteriza el sector de servicios petroleros en Colombia y cuantifica los impactos socioeconómicos generados por la actividad del sector y por sus encadenamientos con otros sectores de la economía. Para esto, el estudio presenta los resultados de una serie de ejercicios que incluyen el cálculo del impacto del sector en la economía nacional con la ayuda de la matriz de contabilidad social elaborada por el DANE y el DNP. Adicionalmente, el estudio identifica y analiza el impacto y la contribución del sector en el desarrollo regional del país, en especial en sus principales áreas geográficas de influencia. Mauricio Olivera, Luis Alberto Zuleta, Tatiana L. Aguilar, Andrés F. Osorio 2011-07-28 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000439:009271&r=all "El principal resultado del estudio muestra que frente al crecimiento del transporte aéreo y su impacto en la economía colombiana, las polí- ticas públicas, especialmente las relacionadas con la infraestructura, no han respondido de manera adecuada para cerrar los cuellos de botella e incentivar el desarrollo del sector frente al aumento de la demanda. Por el lado de las concesiones, a pesar de que a través de las tres generaciones se han recogido importantes lecciones, especialmente frente a los costos asumidos por el Estado y la planeación de los terminales, los atrasos en la concesión del aeropuerto El Dorado y los costos asociados, especialmente para los usuarios, muestran que aún es necesario revisar su diseño. Por su parte, la inversión pública ha disminuido, y el rezago en la infraestructura del espacio aéreo no se ha cerrado". Mauricio Olivera, Pilar Cabrera, Wendy Bermúdez, Adriana Hernández 2011-04-28 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000439:009270&r=all "El principal objetivo de este estudio es evaluar el papel del leasing financiero como mecanismo de financiación de las empresas colombianas, buscando medir su impacto en la inversión de las firmas así como su efecto en el grado de restricción financiera que las mismas enfrentan. As mismo, el estudio analiza cuales son los principales determinantes de la demanda del leasing financiero por parte de las empresas y la relación existente entre el uso del leasing y el crecimiento del empleo de las firmas. A través de los diferentes ejercicios, el estudio evalúa la importancia de la ventaja tributaria que ha tenido el uso del leasing financiero, y por esta vía, sobre las restricciones financieras enfrentadas por las firmas para emprender en sus proyectos de inversión. Por último, el estudio presenta un recuento de las tendencias internacionales en cuanto a la contabilización de las operaciones de leasing financiero. Las principales conclusiones del estudio son las siguientes: i) el uso del leasing en las mipymes ha crecido de manera dinámica, especialmente en la agricultura, la industria y el comercio; ii) los ejercicios econométricos evidencian que las firmas en Colombia están restringidas financieramente; iii) se presenta evidencia empírica acerca de que en el caso de las peque- ñas y medianas empresas (mipyme), el uso del leasing no solamente está asociado con niveles de inversión de las firmas más elevados, sino que además alivia las restricciones financieras enfrentadas por este segmento empresarial. No sucede lo mismo en las grandes empresas; iv) los resultados de un ejercicio cuasi experimental sugieren que alrededor del límite legal en términos de activos que divide las mipyme de las grandes empresas, la ventaja tributaria tiene un efecto positivo sobre la inversión de las firmas que pueden acceder al beneficio. Este resultado debe balancearse con otros, especialmente frente al costo fiscal que representa, y v) el uso del leasing está asociado positivamente con el crecimiento del empleo en las firmas". Natalia Salazar Ferro, Pilar Cabrera, Alejandro Becerra 2011-04-28 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000439:009268&r=all Este Cuaderno presenta los resultados del estudio de "Caracterización del empleo en el sector palmicultor colombiano", realizado a partir de una serie de Encuestas a trabajadores y hogares del sector palmicultor y de sectores similares (agroindustriales); Encuestas a las empresas del sector; Encuestas a las Cooperativas de Trabajo Asociado y a Empresas de Trabajo Temporal donde éstas existen; y Entrevistas a gerentes de empresas del sector, a líderes de las comunidades, y a expertos ambientales. Los resultados incluyen el análisis de las dinámicas y relaciones laborales que se presentan en el sector y el impacto que éstas tienen en el bienestar de los hogares, así como la percepción de diferentes agentes sobre el impacto de la producción y transformación de la palma de aceite en el desarrollo local. Se encuentran efectos del sector en términos de la existencia de diferencias laborales, salariales y de calidad de vida en favor de los trabajadores del sector palmicultor y sus hogares. Mauricio Olivera, Diego Escobar Uribe, Norberto Rojas Delgadillo, Julián Moreno Bonilla 2011-07-28 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000162:009263&r=all Los ahorros en impuestos por deuda son un tema de obligado interés dentro de la literatura financiera porque desafían el supuesto de que la deuda destruye valor, al demostrar que genera subsidios de impuestos que representan valor para las compañías. Pocos son los estudios empíricos que se han realizado al respecto y en general existe predominio de compañías estadounidenses en las bases de datos utilizadas. Este documento estima el valor de los ahorros en impuestos, VAI utilizando el método de Flujos de Caja descontados para 23 de las principales empresas industriales cotizantes en la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia entre 2001 y 2010, donde se muestra que ese valor representa en promedio entre 5,74% y 56,73% del valor de las firmas, dependiendo de la tasa de descuento y metodología utilizadas. Asimismo, se encuentra que el endeudamiento promedio de las firmas es bajo en relación con otros países. Ante este hecho, se exploró el comportamiento del valor total de la firma, VT y no se encontró evidencia de que la deuda cree valor. Rafael Yesid Salas Perez, Juan David Gutierrez, Ignacio Velez Pareja 2011-07-27 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:wpaper:281&r=all This paper aims to construct a high-frequency coincident indicator of economic activity for Lombardy and for the provinces of Milan and Pavia, by using the dynamic factor model approach introduced by Stock e Watson (1998a e 1998b). The principal component analysis is first used to summarize the information contained in a large dataset in a limited number of common factors capable of capturing the main features of local business fluctuations. The EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm then allows to compute the desired territorial indicators by taking into account the official annual data on regional GDP or provincial valueadded growth. Donatella Baiardi, Carluccio Bianchi 2012-01 Coincident Economic Activity Indicators, Italian Regions, Diffusion Indexes http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:cdmawp:1115&r=all The ability of financial frictions to amplify the output response of monetary policy, as in the financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999), is analyzed for a wider class of policy rules where the policy interest rate responds to both in inflation and the output gap. When policy makers respond to the output gap as well as in inflation, the standard financial accelerator model reacts less to an interest rate shock than does a comparable model without an operational financial accelerator mechanism. In recessions, when firm-specific volatility rises, financial acceleration due to financial frictions is further reduced, even under pure inflation targeting. Christoph Thoenissen, Gunes Kamber 2011-12 Financial acceleration; financial frictions; monetary policy. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:22&r=all -- Haucap, Justus, Klein, Gordon J. 2012 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diceop:23&r=all Der Bau von Moscheen in deutschen Großstädten ist in Öffentlichkeit und in Medien in den letzten Jahren sehr kontrovers und teilweise heftig diskutiert werden. Bereits die Ankündigung einer geplanten Errichtung einer großen Moschee hat zu teilweise grotesk anmutenden Abwehrreaktionen geführt. Was genau auch immer die ablehnende Haltung mancher Bürger zum Moscheebau in ihrer Stadt oder in der Nachbarschaft im Einzelnen begründet, ist nicht Gegenstand dieses Beitrags. Vielmehr wird analysiert, ob Moscheen in Deutschland womöglich ein Beispiel für ein sogenanntes NIMBY-Gut sind, wobei NIMBY für Not In My Backyard steht. Mit NIMBY-Gütern werden in der ökonomischen Fachliteratur solche Güter bezeichnet, deren Existenz grundsätzlich von der Mehrheit der Bürger als sinnvoll angesehen wird, aber die man dennoch nicht gerne in seiner unmittelbaren Nachbarschaft haben möchte. Solche NIMBY-Güter stellen für Bürger und wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungsträger ein schwierig zu handhabendes Problem dar. Unsere Analyse ist ein erster Schritt zur Quantifizierung der tatsächlichen Auswirkungen des Moscheebaus auf die Immobilienpreise in der umliegenden Nachbarschaft. Ein erstes vorsichtiges Fazit lautet, dass sich die Folgen für die betroffenen Nachbarn im Durchschnitt in Grenzen halten, auch wenn die Situation im Einzelfall anders gelagert sein kann. Mit Hilfe einer eher kleinen Stichprobe können zwar keine robusten wirtschaftspolitischen Empfehlungen abgeleitet werden - es ist aber festzuhalten, dass die Analyse keine Hinweise auf gravierende Einflüsse auf die Immobilienpreise in der Nachbarschaft liefert. -- Haucap, Justus, Heimeshoff, Ulrich 2012 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fziddp:422012&r=all In this discussion paper we develop a theory-based typology of innovation networks with a special focus on public-private collaboration. This taxonomy is theoretically based on the concept of life cycles which is transferred to the context of innovation networks as well as on the mode of network formation which can occur either spontaneous or planned. The taxonomy distinguishes six different types of networks and incorporates two plausible alternative developments that eventually lead to a similar network structure of the two types of networks. From this, important conclusions and recommendations for network actors and policy makers are drawn. -- Schön, Benjamin, Pyka, Andreas 2012 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tufwps:201102&r=all Obwohl wenige große Unternehmen Ein-Produkt Organisationen sind, widmet die wissenschaftliche Forschung dem Management von Mehr-Produkt Portfolien erstaunlich wenig Aufmerksamkeit. Trotz einer Vielzahl von Arbeiten im Umfeld der Diversifikations- und M&A-Forschung wird dem Corporate Portfolio Management (CPM) und CPM Instrumenten seit den 1980er Jahren kaum Beachtung geschenkt, wie unsere kritische Bestandsaufnahme der einschlägigen Veröffentlichungen im strategischen Management und verwandten Disziplinen offenbart. Es stellt sich die Frage: Warum ist das so? Wir untersuchen zwei Gründe für eine solche Geringschätzung - der begründete Verdacht einer ökonomischen Unterlegenheit der Unternehmensdiversifikation sowie die mögliche Unangemessenheit von CPM Instrumenten - und skizzieren eine Reihe von Anregungen im Hinblick auf praktische Implikationen und zukünftige Forschungsaktivitäten. -- Few major corporations are single business entities. Yet, academia pays surprisingly little attention to the management of multi-business portfolios. Although there is lots of work on diversification and mergers and acquisitions, corporate portfolio management (CPM) and CPM tools receive considerably less regard since the 1980s, as our review of the literature in strategic management and related disciplines discloses. This begs the question, why?. We investigate two reasons for such contempt - the reasonable suspicion of economic inferiority of firm diversification and the possible inappropriateness of CPM tools - and outline a variety of suggestions for practical implications and future research. Nippa, Michael 2011 Unternehmensstrategie,Diversifikation,Planung,Portfolio,Überblick,corporate strategy,diversification,planning,portfolio,review http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tufwps:201103&r=all While International Joint Ventures (IJVs) are a well acknowledged and frequently implemented organizational mode, especially with regard to international market entry strategies, they are also prone to conflicts of interests, inefficiencies, and unintended termination. Accordingly, past research has been dominated by studies that attempted to identify success factors for managing IJVs based upon archive data. Success respectively failure is frequently defined based upon the fact that IJVs disappeared from the data-set. As such, exit became the epitome for closing down ineffective, failing IJVs although withdrawal may in some cases a sign of success if, for instance, the initial objectives of partners have been achieved. Beyond such misconceptions there is no stock-take of what is known about the different types, measures, contexts, and determinants of IJV exit as to take research to the next stage. This paper fills this research gap by comprehensively analyzing the IJV exit literature as an integral part of IJV research, focusing on studies that either apply IJV termination or IJV longevity as a measure of IJV exit. A systematic overview of the contexts and determinants that influence IJV exit is provided and major implications of our findings for directing future research are discussed. -- Obwohl Unternehmen häufig internationale Joint Ventures (IJVs) nutzen - beispielsweise zur Umsetzung von Markteintrittsstrategien - sind diese Organisationen anfällig für Interessenkonflikte, Ineffizienzen und vorzeitige Beendigungen. Dementsprechend hat sich die bisherige Forschung bemüht, Einflussfaktoren zu identifizieren, die zu einem erfolgreichen Management von IJVs führen. Erfolg bzw. Misserfolg wurde oftmals anhand der Tatsache definiert, dass ein IJV von einem Datensatz verschwand. Folglich wurde Exit mit der Beendigung von ineffizienten und fehlgeschlagenen IJVs gleichgesetzt, auch wenn die Beendigung von IJVs einen erfolgreichen Ausgang widerspiegeln kann, z.B. falls die Ziele der IJV-Partner erfüllt wurden. Trotz solcher Missinterpretationen existiert derzeit keine kritische Darstellung der bisherigen IJV-Exit Forschungsergebnisse im Hinblick auf unterschiedliche Arten, Messgrößen, Kontexte und Einflussfaktoren des IJV Exits. Diese Studie geht auf diese Forschungslücke ein und analysiert die bisherige IJV Exit Literatur, indem sie Artikel auswertet, die IJV Exit entweder anhand der Lebensdauer oder der Beendigung misst. Es wird ein systematischer Überblick des Kontexts und der Einflussfaktoren des IJV Exits entwickelt und grundlegende Implikationen für die künftige IJV Exit Forschung diskutiert. Nemeth, Alexander, Nippa, Michael 2011 exit,International Joint Venture,longevity,performance,termination,Exit,Internationale Joint Venture,Lebensdauer,Erfolg,Beendigung http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2011204&r=all Seit Jahren hat das dezentrale System der Hochschulzulassung in Deutschland aufgrund von Mehrfachzulassungen bis lange nach Semesterbeginn mit dem Problem unbesetzter Studienplätze zu kämpfen eines der typischen Probleme dezentraler Zuordnungsverfahren. Langwierige Nachrückverfahren verzögern die Besetzung freier Studienplätze teils um mehrere Monate, obwohl die Hochschulen auf diese Problematik bereits mit einem starken Überbuchen der Studiengänge reagiert haben. Das Dialogorientierte Serviceverfahren, dessen Manipulationsanreize, Stabilitäts- und Effizienzeigenschaften von uns betrachtet werden, soll diese Probleme zukünftig beseitigen und hat durchaus das Potential die gegenwärtige Situation entscheidend zu verbessern. Dennoch konnten Schwachstellen identifiziert werden, die ausgeräumt werden sollten. -- The deregulation of the German market for university admissions has led to a number of typical problems of decentralized matching markets such as multiple applications, late rejections of offers, and universities unable to fill all their spaces. Unraveling, inefficiencies and risks for both sides of the market arise. Therefore a new centralized admissions procedure has been agreed upon. We discuss the new mechanism with its strengths and shortcomings. Overall, the centralized procedure allows universities to select their most preferred students, and is likely to improve upon the current situation. However, some weaknesses can be identified that should be addressed. Hüber, Frank, Kübler, Dorothea 2011 matching,university admission,manipulation,strategic behavior http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2011205&r=all We present a legislative bargaining model of the provision of a durable public good over an infinite horizion. In each period, there is a societal endowment which can either be invested in the public good or consumed. We characterize the optimal public policy, defined by the time path of investment and consumption. In each period, a legislature with presentatives of each of n districts bargain over the current period's endowment for investment in the public good and transfers to each district. We analyze the Markov perfect equilibrium under different voting q-rules where q is the number of yes votes required for passage. We show that the efficiency of the public policy is increasing in q because higher q leads to higher investment in the public good and less pork. We examine the theoretical equilibrium predictions by conducting a laboratory experiment with fiveperson committees that compares three alternative voting rules: unanimity (q=5); majority (q=3); and dictatorship (q=1). -- Battaglini, Marco, Nunnari, Salvatore, Palfrey, Thomas 2011 dynamic political economy,voting,public goods,bargaining,experiments http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluivr:141&r=all The railroad package of 2001 focusing on access regulation is in the process of a reform. Particularly, the European Commission intends to remove the obstacles to fair competition that have been identified since 2001. In this context, the paper points out the relevance of the disaggregated regulatory approach. It is necessary to differentiate between infrastructure components which are monopolistic bottlenecks (e.g. railway tracks) and competitive components (e. g. service functions like ticketing). Competition on the markets for railway transport services requires non-discriminatory access to the railway infrastructures. As well the horizontal interoperability between national railway networks is a prerequisite that full competition on European markets for railway services can evolve. Train access charges should provide incentives for the different track companies to participate in collaborations offering international cross-border based track capacities, whereas a regulatory prescription of international track corridors conflicts with the competence to allocate the track capacities of the different track companies. Finally, the complex question of the interplay between discrimination and the deficit problem is addressed in order to present solutions to avoid crosssubsidization between track infrastructure and markets for transport services and to guarantee the efficient usage of public funds. -- Knieps, Günter, Zenhäusern, Patrick 2011 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fce:doctra:1128&r=all Existing studies show that individuals who retire replace some private consumption by home production, but do not consider joint behaviour of couples. Here we analyze the causal effect of retirement of each partner on hours of home production of both partners in a couple. Our identification strategy exploits the earliest age retirement laws in France, enabling a fuzzy regression discontinuity approach. We find that own retirement significantly increases own hours of home production and the effect is larger for men than for women. Moreover, retirement of the female partner significantly reduces male hours of home production but not vice versa. Elena Stancanelli, Arthur Van Soest 2011-12 House work, Ageing,Retirement,Regression Discontinuity http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:680&r=all This paper takes stock of global efforts towards financial reform since the start of the financial crisis in 2007-08, and provides a synthetic (if simplified) picture of their status as of January 2012. Underlying dynamics are described and analysed both at the global level (particularly G-20, International Monetary Fund and the Financial Stability Board) and in individual jurisdictions, together with the impact the crisis has had on them. The possible next steps of financial reform are then reviewed along several dimensions including ongoing crisis management in Europe, the new emphasis on macroprudential approaches, the challenges posed by globally integrated financial firms, the implementation of harmonised global standards and the links between financial systems and growth. This text is forthcoming in: Barry Eichengreen and Bokyeong Park (eds) (2012), The global economy after the financial crisis, World Scientific Publishing. Financial support from the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) is gratefully acknowledged. Nicolas Véron 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lam:wpaper:12-05&r=all L’économie a longtemps été considérée comme une science non expérimentale. En quelques décennies seulement, le paysage de la recherche économique s’est radicalement transformé : la méthode expérimentale occupe désormais une place reconnue dans la boîte à outils de l’économiste. Une histoire complète et cohérente de l’économie expérimentale reste à écrire. L’article vise simplement à en donner un aperçu qui respecte la chronologie, mentionne les moments forts de son évolution et identifie les pionniers de la discipline en même temps que les représentants des principaux programmes de recherche qui l’innervent. Il propose de fragmenter artificiellement l’histoire de l’économie expérimentale en quatre grandes étapes aux frontières peu précises qualifiées ainsi : (i) l’émergence : de la fin de la Seconde Guerre Mondiale au tout début des années 1960 (ii) un lent démarrage : les décennies 1960 et 1970 (iii) le décollage : les années 1980 (iv) la maturité : depuis le milieu de la décennie 1990. Daniel Serra 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lam:wpaper:12-06&r=all Cet article analyse le comportement cyclique du cours du Dow Jones et notamment ses propriétés de mémoire longue à travers une nouvelle classe de modèles ARFIMA semiparamétriques avec erreurs GARCH hyperboliques, notée SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH ; cette classe inclut une tendance déterministe non paramétrique, une tendance stochastique, la dépendance à court et à long terme ainsi que le terme d’erreur hétéroscédastique à mémoire longue. Nous étudions les rendements journaliers du Dow Jones de 1896 à 2006. Les résultats prédictifs montrent que les chocs informationnels ont des conséquences durables sur la volatilité et que le modèle SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH possède une supériorité évidente sur d’autres modèles pour des horizons longs et/ou courts. Une des conclusions est que l’hypothèse d’efficience faible des marchés financiers semble violée pour la série des rentabilités de Dow Jones étudiées sur longue période. MOHAMED CHIKHI, ANNE PEGUIN-FEISSOLLE, MICHEL TERRAZA 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:materi:069&r=all In Nordrhein-Westfalen hat die Konjunktur im Verlauf des Jahres 2011 spürbar an Schwung verloren. Dabei dürfte das Expansionstempo sogar etwas stärker nachgelassen haben als in Deutschland insgesamt. Dies liegt zum einen an der höheren Bedeutung der Stahlindustrie, die sensibler als andere Branchen auf Änderungen der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aktivität regiert. Zum anderen schlägt die starke Ausrichtung der nordrhein-westfälischen Automobilindustrie auf europäische Märkte negativ zu Buche, da sich die Konjunktur im Euro-Raum stärker abkühlte als in anderen Regionen. Wir erwarten für 2011 ein Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 2,8% im Vergleich zu 3,0% in Deutschland insgesamt. Um die Jahreswende 2011/12 dürfte die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung nahezu stagnieren, weil von der Außenwirtschaft keine Impulse ausgehen. Dies schlägt auf die Investitionen durch, während die Konsumnachfrage angesichts der günstigen Beschäftigungssituation robust bleiben dürfte. Im weiteren Verlauf des Jahres dürfte die Expansion etwas an Fahrt gewinnen. Für den Jahresdurchschnitt erwarten wir, dass das nordrhein-westfälische Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 0,6% zunehmen wird, also mit der gleichen Rate wie im Bundesdurchschnitt. Ungeachtet der schwächeren Konjunktur dürfte sich die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt nicht verschlechtern. Zwar kommt der Beschäftigungsaufb au zum Stillstand. Jedoch werden die Unternehmen Auslastungsschwankungen wohl eher durch Kurzarbeit und die Nutzung von Flexibilisierungsspielräumen in den Tarifverträgen ausgleichen. Aus demographischen Gründen dürfte die Arbeitslosigkeit noch leicht zurückgehen. Die Arbeitslosenquote geht voraussichtlich von 8,1% in Jahr 2011 auf 7,8% im Jahr 2012 und läge damit unverändert um einen Prozentpunkt höher als in Deutschland insgesamt.[...] Roland Döhrn, Tobias Kitlinski, Simeon Vosen 2012-01 Konjunktur; NRW; Nordrhein-Westfalen; Konjunkturprognose http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:materi:066&r=all Als Teil des Gesundheitswesens übernimmt die medizinische Rehabilitation die Aufgabe, die Teilhabe von chronisch kranken Menschen am Leben in der Gesellschaft und ihre Selbstbestimmung nachhaltig zu fördern, indem sie den Folgen einer Krankheit in Form von Fähigkeitsstörungen und sozialen Beeinträchtigungen (Behinderung, Erwerbsunfähigkeit, Pflegebedürftigkeit) vorzubeugen, sie zu beseitigen, zu bessern oder deren wesentliche Verschlechterung abzuwenden versucht. Damit leistet sie einen Beitrag dazu, dass Arbeitnehmer länger am Arbeitsleben teilnehmen können, Frühverrentungen und Pflegebedürftigkeit vermieden und so auch Beiträge für die Sozialversicherungsträger geleistet werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund möchte das vorliegende „Faktenbuch Medizinische Rehabilitation 2011“ einen Überblick über die medizinische Rehabilitation in Deutschland, ihre Grundlagen und ihre Wirksamkeit geben. Auf fünf wichtige Datenquellen kann dazu derzeit zugegriff en werden: Daten der Rehabilitationsträger Deutsche Rentenversicherung (DRV), Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung (GKV) und Gesetzliche Unfallversicherung (GUV), Grund- und Diagnosedaten der Rehabilitations- und Vorsorgeeinrichtungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes sowie Jahresabschlussdaten von Rehabilitationseinrichtungen. Boris Augurzky, Arndt Rüdiger Reichert, Markus Scheuer 2011-04 medizinische Rehabilitation; Deutsche Rentenversicherung; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung; GKV http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:materi:067&r=all Im Jahr 2009 befanden sich 12% der Krankenhäuser im „roten Bereich“ mit erhöhter Insolvenzgefahr, 75% lagen im grünen Bereich, die restlichen 13% dazwischen. Die durchschnittliche Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit betrug 2009 1,2%. Die wirtschaftliche Lage hat sich damit 2009 gegenüber 2008, als 14% der Krankenhäuser im roten und nur 69% im grünen Bereich waren, verbessert. Grundlage für diese Analysen ist eine Stichprobe von 687 Jahresabschlüssen aus 2008, die insgesamt 1 035 Krankenhäuser umfassen, und 366 aus 2009. 2009 erhöhten sich die KHG-Fördermittel erstmals seit 1995 spürbar um 6,5% auf 2,85 Mrd. €. Damit dürfte aber der langfristige Rückgang der Mittel nicht durchbrochen sein. Vielmehr dürfte es sich um eine antizyklische Stabilisierungsmaßnahme als Folge der Finanzkrise gehandelt haben. Legt man einen als notwendig erachteten jährlichen Investitionsbedarf von 10% des Krankenhausumsatzes zugrunde, beläuft sich die seit 1991 kumulierte Investitionslücke auf 30 Mrd. €. Allerdings füllen die Krankenhäuser einen wachsenden Teil dieser Lücke durch Investitionen aus Eigenmitteln, sodass der tatsächliche Investitionsstau nun 14 Mrd. € betragen dürfte. Die sinkende Fördermittelquote bestätigt sich auch in den Krankenhausbilanzen.[...] Boris Augurzky, Rosemarie Gülker, Sebastian Krolop, Christoph M. Schmidt, Hartmut Schmidt, Hendrik Schmitz, Stefan Terkatz 2011-05 Krankenhäuser; Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit; KHG-Fördermittel; Investitionslücke http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:materi:068&r=all Der Pflegemarkt ist ein Wachstumsmarkt. Die vorliegenden Zahlen aus 2009 bestätigen dies erneut: Insgesamt gab es 2,34 Mill. pflegebedürftige Menschen, davon wurden 749 000 stationär und 555 000 durch ambulante Dienste versorgt, der Rest erhielt Pflegegeld. Das Marktvolumen der ambulanten und stationären Pflegedienste betrug rund 30 Mrd. €. Gegenüber anderen Teilbereichen des Gesundheitsmarkts wächst der Pflegemarkt am stärksten: 1997 betrug der Anteil der Pflege 8,6% des gesamten Gesundheitsmarkts, 2009 bereits 11%. Damit rangierte die Pflege in ihrer Bedeutung an vierter Stelle hinter Krankenhäusern, Arztpraxen sowie Apotheken und Arzneimitteln. Die wirtschaftliche Lage der Pflegeheime ist relativ gut: Ihre durchschnittliche Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit (Zahlungsunfähigkeit) betrug 2009 1,1%. Sie lag damit niedriger als bei Krankenhäusern und Rehakliniken. 14% der Heime lagen im „roten Bereich“ (d.h. hier gibt es eine erhöhte Insolvenzgefahr), 69% im grünen und 17% dazwischen im gelben Bereich. Ketten schnitten besser ab als Einzelheime, solche mit niedrigen Preisen besser als solche mit hohen. Die Lage der Heime war in den ostdeutschen Bundesländern am besten und in Schleswig-Holstein/Hamburg, Baden-Württemberg und Rheinland-Pfalz/Saarland am schlechtesten. 90% wiesen 2009 aber mindestens einen ausgeglichenen Jahresüberschuss aus, 10% schrieben rote Zahlen. Das durchschnittliche Heim erwirtschaftete 2009 ein EBITDAR (Betriebsergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern, Abschreibungen, Amortisation und Mieten) von 14% des Umsatzes. Zwischen 2006 und 2009 hat sich die Lage aber leicht verschlechtert. Untersucht wurden 538 Jahresabschlüsse aus den Jahren 2008 und 2009, die insgesamt 1 702 Pflegeheime umfassen. Rückblickend lassen sich folgende spezifischen Trends erkennen: (i) anhaltende Attraktivität des Markts, (ii) zunehmende Professionalisierung, (iii) Ambulantisierung, (iv) Privatisierung, (v) wachsende Personalknappheit, (vi) zunehmende Qualitätstransparenz und (vii) Bürokratisierung.[...] Boris Augurzky, Sebastian Krolop, Roman Mennicken, Hartmut Schmidt, Hendrik Schmitz, Stefan Terkatz 2011-07 Pflegemarkt; Pflegeheime; ambulante Pflegedienste; stationäre Pflegedienste; Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:materi:065&r=all Die Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur“ (GRW) ist das zentrale wirtschaftspolitische Instrument zur Förderung entwicklungsschwacher Regionen in Deutschland seit Ende der 1960er Jahre. Seit der deutschen Wiedervereinigung kommt es zudem flächendeckend in den neuen Bundesländern zur Förderung der privaten Investitionstätigkeit und wirtschaftsnahen Infrastruktur zum Einsatz. In dieser Untersuchung wird der Einfluss der GRW-Förderung auf das Produktivitätswachstum der 225 deutschen Arbeitsmarktregionen im Zeitraum von 1994 bis 2006 empirisch untersucht. Ausgangspunkt ist eine neoklassisch motivierte Konvergenzgleichung. Die Schätzergebnisse zeigen für verschiedene Modellspezifikationen einen signifikant positiven Einfluss der Förderung auf das Produktivitätswachstum der geförderten Arbeitsmarktregionen. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Konvergenzgeschwindigkeit für Regionen deutlich unterhalb ihres steady state nahezu verdoppelt. Um die Robustheit der Ergebnisse zu überprüfen, wird das klassische ökonometrische Modell schließlich um „räumliche“ Komponenten erweitert. Sowohl für das Spatial Durbin- und auch das Spatial Durbin Error-Modell ergeben sich negative Spillovereffekte der GRW-Förderung. Dieser indirekte Effekt bleibt stabil, wenn räumliche Lags weiterer erklärender Variablen in die Schätzgleichung aufgenommen werden. Er kann u.a. damit erklärt werden, dass die geförderte Region im Standortvergleich attraktiver wird und somit – wie politisch gewollt – Investitionen aus anderen Regionen „abzieht“. Im Resultat führen die negativen räumlichen Spillover-Effekte zu einer Verlangsamung der Konvergenzgeschwindigkeit, allerdings bleibt der Gesamteffekt der GRW-Förderung weiterhin positiv. Björn Alecke, Timo Mitze, Gerhard Untiedt 2011-03 GRW-Förderung; Arbeitsmarktregionen; Konvergenz; Spatial-Durbin-Modell; Spatial Durbin Error-Modell; Spillover-Effekt http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:konjbe:11_02&r=all Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland - Magere Perspektiven; Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland - Zunehmende Risiken für die Konjunktur; Die Lage am Stahlmarkt: Am Beginn eines Abschwungs? Roland Döhrn, Philipp an de Meulen, Tobias Kitlinski, Martin Micheli, Torsten Schmidt, Simeon Vosen, György Barabas, Heinz Gebhardt, Lina Zimmermann 2011-09 Konjunktur; wirtschaftliche Entwicklung http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:konjbe:11_01&r=all Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland - Aufschwung setzt sich fort – Divergenzen bleiben groß; Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland - Feste Konjunktur in unsicherem Umfeld; Projektion der mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2015 Roland Döhrn, Philipp an de Meulen, Tobias Kitlinski, Martin Micheli, Torsten Schmidt, Simeon Vosen, György Barabas, Heinz Gebhardt, Lina Zimmermann 2011-03 Konjunktur; wirtschaftliche Entwicklung; Mittelfristprojektion http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:positi:047&r=all Seit knapp einem Jahr regiert die Rot-Grüne Minderheitsregierung in Nordrhein-Westfalen. In der Haushalts- und Finanzpolitik war der Nachtragshaushalt 2010, den der Verfassungsgerichtshof des Landes in seinem Urteil vom 21.12.2010 als verfassungswidrig beurteilt hat, als Fehlstart zu bewerten. Am 18. Mai steht im Landtag jetzt die Abstimmung über den Gesetzentwurf der Landesregierung für den Haushalt 2011 an. Bei Ausgaben in Höhe von rd. 55 Mrd. € und Einnahmen in Höhe von gut 50 Mrd. € ist eine Nettokreditaufnahme von 4,8 Mrd. € notwendig, um den Haushalt auszugleichen. Vergleicht man diesen Betrag mit der Neuverschuldung von 8,9 Mrd. €, die noch im Oktober von der Landesregierung im Nachtragshaushalt 2010 vorgesehen waren, sieht es zunächst nach einer Glanzleistung der Regierung in Sachen Haushaltskonsolidierung aus. Davon kann aber keine Rede sein, denn die Haushaltsverbesserung resultiert aus der unerwartet guten wirtschaft lichen Entwicklung und den daraus folgenden Steuermehreinnahmen. In einer konjunkturell guten Situation verlangt die neue Schuldenbremse aber mehr Ehrgeiz bei der Konsolidierung, denn im Mittelpunkt steht der Abbau des strukturellen Defi zits. Der Entwurf für den Haushalt 2011 würde dieses strukturelle Defizit jedoch nicht verringern, sondern sogar vergrößern.[...] Heinz Gebhardt, Rainer Kambeck, Florian Matz 2011-05 NRW-Haushalt; Schuldenbremse; strukturelles Defizit http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:positi:042&r=all In der Freude über die ökonomische Erholung nach der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise darf nicht übersehen werden, dass die deutsche Volkswirtschaft vor großen Herausforderungen steht. Dazu gehört neben dem demographischen Wandel und dem Umbau der Energieversorgung auch die Gewichtsverschiebung in der globalisierten Weltwirtschaft . Diese RWI Position leitet aus der von historischen Erfahrungen und ökonomischen Überlegungen geprägten Diskussion von Wirtschaft sleistung, Wertschöpfung und Wachstumspotenzialen zentrale wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsempfehlungen ab. Deutschland kann auf ein beeindruckendes Wachstum zurückblicken. Den erreichten Lebensstandard zu bewahren oder weiter auszubauen wird jedoch nur möglich sein, wenn das Wachstumspotenzial systematisch verbessert und Wachstumschancen konsequent genutzt werden. Auf zwei Bereiche kommt es besonders an: Einerseits der Aufbau und der effiziente Einsatz von Humankapital und andererseits der Ausbau von F&E-Aktivitäten. Zur Stärkung des Humankapitals sollten Anstrengungen unternommen werden, dass künftig alle Schüler einen Schulabschluss erreichen können. Entscheidend dafür sind Investitionen in die frühkindliche Bildung sowie der Ausbau von Ganztagesschulen. Das Hochschulsystem sollte so ausgerichtet werden, dass Deutschland seinen Rückstand bei der Absolventenzahl verringern kann.[...] Ronald Bachmann, Christoph Ehlert, Christoph M. Schmidt 2011-04 Gesundheitsausgaben; Gesundheitswesen; Gesundheitsfonds; GKV; private Zusatzversicherung http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:positi:043&r=all In der Diskussion um ein „gerechtes“ Steuer- und Abgabensystem ist häufig zu hören, dass in Deutschland die „Mittelschicht“ übermäßig stark belastet wird und „Spitzenverdiener“ zu wenig zur Finanzierung des Gemeinwesens beitragen. Diese RWI Position unterzieht die öffentliche Wahrnehmung einer „ungerechten“ Lastenverteilung einer empirischen Überprüfung. Hierzu wird die im Jahr 2010 herrschende Verteilung der Belastungen durch direkte und indirekte Steuern sowie durch Sozialversicherungsbeiträge auf der Basis von repräsentativen Mikrodaten geschätzt. Es zeigt sich, dass die Haushalte aus dem mittleren Einkommensbereich tatsächlich den größten Beitrag zum Gesamtaufkommen der direkten, der indirekten Steuern und der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge leisten. Ihr hoher Finanzierungsanteil resultiert dabei aus der Tatsache, dass diese Haushalte zahlenmäßig in Deutschland am stärksten vertreten sind. Die höchsten Finanzierungslasten schultern jedoch die 10% der Haushalte mit den höchsten Einkommen – sowohl bei den Steuern als auch bei den Abgaben. Bei der Einkommensteuer tragen diese Haushalte sogar mehr als die Hälfte des Aufkommens. [...] Boris Beimann, Rainer Kambeck, Tanja Kasten, Lars-H. Siemers 2011-04 Steuerlast; Steuersystem; Steuerbelastung; direkte Steuern; indirekte Steuern http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:positi:046&r=all Wie haben sich Umfang und Struktur der deutschen Staatseinnahmen und -ausgaben über die Zeit entwickelt – und wie ist die aktuelle Situation aus ökonomischer Sicht zu bewerten? Mit diesen Fragen spricht die vorliegende RWI Position die seit langer Zeit geführte Debatte über den „richtigen“ Umfang der Staatstätigkeit und die Frage nach einer „optimalen“ Staatsquote an. Vor der Bewertung steht jedoch die empirische Analyse. Die RWI Position stellt daher zunächst die Struktur und Entwicklung von Einnahmen und Ausgaben des Staates sowie die damit verbundenen Finanzierungsprobleme im Überblick dar. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei eine Auseinandersetzung mit dem Verhältnis von eher konsumtiven Sozialleistungen und Investitionen in die Gestaltung der Zukunft sowie eine Problematisierung des zunehmenden Gewichts der im so genannten „Sozialbudget“ verausgabten Mittel. Anschließend werden die zu erwartenden Folgen des demografi schen Wandels, explizite und implizite Staatsverschuldung sowie die damit eng verbundene Frage der Tragfähigkeit der öff entlichen Finanzen erörtert. Gesamtstaatlich betrachtet ist es seit Mitte der 70er Jahre in den meisten Jahren nicht gelungen, die steigenden Ausgaben mit „ordentlichen“ Einnahmen aus Steuern und Beitragsleistungen der Bürger zu fi nanzieren. Einen erheblichen Anteil an dieser Entwicklung hat die Expansion der Sozialleistungen, die im Jahr 2009 insgesamt ein Volumen von 754 Mrd. € erreichten, wovon der Staat den größten Anteil fi nanzieren musste. Eine Konsequenz der zunehmenden Inanspruchnahme von staatlichen Mitteln für den Sozialbereich ist eine seit Beginn der 90er Jahre über fast eineinhalb Jahrzehnte sinkende staatliche Investitionsquote. Eine andere, noch dramatischere Kehrseite der regelmäßigen Kreditfi nanzierung staatlicher Leistungen ist die Staatsverschuldung, die zum Jahresende 2010 einen Betrag von über 2 Bill. € erreicht hat. Die Schuldenquote übersteigt derzeit die mit dem Maastricht-Kriterium von 60% vorgegebene Grenze deutlich. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird im Fazit argumentiert, dass es erstens keine sinnvolle Alternative zur Konsolidierung der Staatsfi nanzen gibt, dass zweitens diese Konsolidierung über die Ausgabenseite bei paralleler Verbesserung der Ausgabenstruktur erfolgen sollte, und dass drittens die infolge der Finanz- und Wirtschaft skrise signifi kant gestiegene Staatsquote auf das vor der Krise bestehende Niveau zurückgeführt werden sollte. Nils aus dem Moore, Boris Beimann, Heinz Gebhardt, Rainer Kambeck 2011-04 Staatseinnahmen; Staatsquote; Staatsausgaben; Staatsverschuldung; Maastricht-Kriterien http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5957&r=all This paper surveys qualitative crisis monitoring data from sites in 17 developing and transition countries to describe crisis impacts and analyze the responses and sources of support used by people to cope. These crises included shocks to export sectors as a result of the global financial crisis, as well as food and fuel price volatility, in the period from 2008 to early 2011. Respondents reported the crisis had resulted in significant hardships in the form of foregone meals, education, and health care, food insecurity, asset losses, stress, and worsening crime and community cohesion. Although the export-oriented formal sector was most exposed to the global economic downturn, the crises impacts were more damaging for informal sector workers, and some of the adverse impacts will be long-lasting and possibly irreversible. There were important gender and age differences in the distribution of impacts and coping responses, some of which diverged from what has been seen in previous crisis coping responses. The more common sources of assistance were family, friends, and community-based and religious organizations; formal social protection and finance were not widely cited as sources of support in most study countries. However, as the crisis deepened, the traditional informal safety nets of the poor became depleted because of the large and long-lasting shocks that ensued, pointing to the need for better formal social protection systems for coping with future shocks. Heltberg, Rasmus, Hossain, Naomi, Reva, Anna, Turk, Carolyn 2012-01-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1268&r=all In our original comment, we showed that Hausken's characterization of Nash equilibrium is invalid for much of the parameter space examined and provided necessary conditions for his solution to hold. Most of the comments in his reply are either tangential or irrelevant. However, several of the claims made in the reply reveal continuing misunderstandings and gaps in his understanding. In this rejoinder, we brie y clarify the fundamental issues. Dan Kovenock, Brian Roberson 2012-01 Game theory; OR in military; Con ict, Contest, Network, Colonel Blotto game http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1266&r=all Our paper investigates whether the valuation effect caused by a large risk premium and a low risk-free rate can help to explain the enormous US current account and trade deficit observed in the past decade. To answer this question, we set up an endowment growth model in which investors are endowed with heterogeneous trading technologies. In our model, the average US investors load up more aggregate risk by investing in a risky asset abroad and issuing a risk-free asset. Thanks to the large risk premium as well as the low risk-free rate, the US can sustain a long-run trade deficit even as a debtor country. Quantitatively, we find that the valuation effect caused solely by the high risk premium and the low risk-free rate in our model, which is calibrated to match the external assets and liabilities of US economy, can account for more than half of the observed trade deficit and current account deficit. Our results suggest that the current US trade deficit might not necessarily lead to net export increases or dollar depreciation in the future. YiLi Chien, Kanda Naknoi 2011-10 Global Imbalances; External Account; Risk Premium; Asset Pricing; Limited Participation http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1267&r=all History-dependent strategies are often used to support cooperation in repeated game models. Using the indefinitely repeated common-pool resource assignment game and a perfect stranger experimental design, this paper reports novel evidence that players who have successfully used an efficiency-enhancing turn-taking strategy will teach other players in subsequent supergames to adopt this strategy. We find that subjects engage in turn taking frequently in both the Low Conflict and the High Conflict treatments. Prior experience with turn taking significantly increases turn taking in both treatments. Moreover, successful turn taking often involves fast learning, and individuals with turn taking experience are more likely to be teachers than inexperienced individuals. The comparative statics results show that teaching in such an environment also responds to incentives, since teaching is empirically more frequent in the Low Conflict treatment with higher benefits and lower costs. Timothy N. Cason, Sau-Him Paul Lau, Vai-Lam Mui 2011-12 Learning, Teaching, Assignment Game, Laboratory Experiment, Repeated Games, Turn Taking, Common-Pool Resources http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:119832&r=all The uncertain future of the Conservation Reserve Program has created substantial interest for agricultural producers, rural businesses, community leaders, sportsmen, and wildlife organizations. Many regions of the upper Great Plains have participated heavily in the CRP as evidenced by program acreage reaching land enrollment limits; however, current enrollment and re-enrollment criterion are expected to substantially reduce CRP acreage in many parts of the Great Plains. The divergence of interests between pursing post-CRP lands for agricultural production versus retaining the wildlife habitat and wildlife populations supported on CRP lands presents land owners and agricultural producers with important land management decisions over the next several years. This research examines the regional economic implications of post-CRP land use among traditional agricultural uses, wildlife production, and multiple-use practices. Of particular interest is whether multiple-use management on post-CRP lands can produce similar returns to landowners and producers as traditional land uses, and determine the effects of multiple-use management on post-CRP lands on regional economic output. A multiple-use system implemented on post-CRP lands based primarily on beef grazing while producing corn and barley for forage and retaining a portion of acreage in dedicated wildlife habitat would not compete economically with other conventional land uses. The net change in gross receipts within the regional economy from agricultural uses of post-CRP lands exceeded lost recreational expenditures in all scenarios evaluated. Bangsund, Dean A., Hodur, Nancy M., Leistritz, F. Larry, Nudell, Dan 2011-12 North Dakota, Conservation Reserve Program, Recreation, Agriculture, Land Management, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119798&r=all The emergence of biofuel production has impacted almost all sectors of the agricultural industry and the general economy and has produced a large body of research into how increased production of biofuels will impact the agricultural sector and the general economy. All research is in agreement that total biomass production will be required to increase to meet food and fuel demands. The increase in biomass will, of necessity, require increased use of fertilizers. Research on fertilizer demand has been scarce over the last decade. Because of the recent increase in the demand for grain crops and livestock in an era with little excess capacity in commodity production, the pressure to increase output will fall to increased use of fertilizers. In addition, there is some evidence of increasing scarcity in the principle macro nutrients (eg phosphorus, nitrogen and potassium). Thus, there is an urgent need to initiate research into the demand for fertilizers to determine the economic implications of expanded crop and livestock production. This analysis can provide crop producers and policy makers with important information on the role of nutrients in the economics of expanding uses for the major grain and forage crops. Most researchers have focused on total fertilizer (N.P.K) demand for total crop production which does not capture the effects of individual fertilizers on the individual crops. This study focuses on nitrogen demand for biofuel and cereal crop production and the impact on crop prices in the United States using the method of feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation by weighted least squares regression. The results show that nitrogen fertilizer is very much responsive to corn price, wheat price, nitrogen price, phosphate price, and potash price. Results also indicate that increase in nitrogen price decreases nitrogen demand while increases in the price of corn, wheat, and other fertilizers increases the demand for nitrogen fertilizer. Acheampong, Kwame, Dicks, Michael R. 2012-01 Nitrogen demand, corn production, fertilizer prices, biofuel production., Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119859&r=all Although the effect of HACCP on international trade is an issue with many concerns recently, only a few empirical studies focus on the impact of HACCP on U.S seafood export industry. Using the approach of Gravity Model with adjustment of unobserved country characteristics, this paper contributes to analyze the differential effects of HACCP implementation on three kinds of seafood: fishes, mollusca, and shellfish other than mollusca. The results indicate that HACCP application has negative but insignificant effect on seafood exports in the short run. In the long run, HACCP only negatively and significantly affect seafood exports of mollusca and shellfish. Moreover, the higher risk of food born disease seafood has, the easier is seafood trading affected by the enforcement of stricter food safety standards. Li, Xiaoqian, Saghaian, Sayed 2012 HACCP, Mollusca, Fishes, Shellfish Other Than Mollusca, Trade Flow, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119792&r=all The objective of the paper is to establish an empirical relationship between household characteristics and tobacco growersâ perception of the impact of the FDA regulation. A logistic model is applied on primary data that came from the Center for Tobacco Grower Researchâs (CTGRâs) 2011 mail survey of tobacco producers. Results indicate that over 80 percent of the sample tobacco growers are concerned about the impact of the FDA regulation. The profiles of growers who reported to be concerned about the impact of the FDA regulation are not significantly different from those of growers who reported that they are not concerned or somewhat concerned. This result highlights the importance of engaging all groups of growers in discussion to elaborate whether, and if so how the FDA regulation would actually affect tobacco production, and how growers should adjust in light of the expected changes. This would help growers build confidence in the industry, and work towards making the necessary changes in agricultural practices that would help address the regulatory issues related to the contents of tobacco products. Given the widespread concern, the failure to do so could have a negative impact on resource allocation and investment decisions because of an overreaction to a potentially erroneous perception of the impact of the FDA regulation. Feleke, Shiferaw, Starnes, Jane, Tiller, Kelly 2012-01-17 Tobacco, U.S. Food and Drug Adminstration, Regulation, Agricultural and Food Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119670&r=all Empirical results suggest that the grid premium and discount structure is slowly adjusting carcass quality incentive/disincentive market signals to encourage marketing on a grid and discourage marketing by the pen. If this trend continues, grid market share of steer and heifer slaughter volume should increase in the future. Fausti, Scott W., Wang, Gerald, Diersen, Matthew, Qasmi, Bashir 2012-01-13 fed cattle, grid, marketing, market share, livestock production, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q13, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119789&r=all Using data between 1995 and 2010, we find that agricultural banks are benefiting from the derivatives activities by reducing total risk without hurting their profit. In nonagricultural banks, both profitability and total risk are adversely affected, possibly due to speculative derivatives positions. Shen, Xuan, Hartarska, Valentina 2012 Agricultural Banks, Financial Derivatives, Profitability, Risk Management, Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119667&r=all When an elderly individual living in a rural community is no longer able to drive, issues that come with living in an isolated area (i.e. limited access to health and personal services, distance between home and town centers) are exaggerated and the individual may experience a decrease in their quality of life. Public transportation that supports elderly individuals may be an important issue for rural communities to consider in creating an aging-friendly community and maintaining quality of life for residents who are no longer able to drive. The purpose of this research is to obtain an understanding of opinions about public transportation for the elderly held by rural county residents and their WTP for transportation options through an additional vehicle registration fee. To achieve this objective, a survey with choice experiments was distributed to residents in Atascosa and Polk County, Texas in September 2011. Researchers employed a conditional logit model to analyze the choice survey data and examine county residentsâ WTP for various transportation options. The results of this study provide public transportation managers insights into the attributes taxpayers expect in transportation routes and programs. Israel, Alicia, Mjelde, James W., Dudensing, Rebekka, Cherrington, Linda, Jin, Yanhong, Chen, Junyi 2012 Elderly Transportation, Rural Transportation, Rural Elderly, Rural Quality of Life, Community/Rural/Urban Development, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119800&r=all This study measures the impact of corn-based ethanol production in the United States on land use in other countries, or indirect land use. Indirect land use is a change from non-cropland to cropland (e.g. deforestation) that may occur in response to increasing scarcity of cropland. As farmers worldwide respond to higher crop prices in order to maintain the global food supply and demand balance, pristine lands are cleared and converted to new cropland to replace the crops for feed and food that were diverted elsewhere to biofuel production. The results show that increasing ethanol production in the US has a positive and significant relation to U.S corn price. However, U.S. corn price does not have a significant impact on changes in corn acreage in Brazil and other countries such as Canada, Japan and China. Although many authors have hypothesized that increased ethanol production in the U.S. will increase corn prices, which will result in increased change in land use in other countries, these results suggest that the effect is minimal at best. This is important because although production of ethanol for fuel is often criticized for negatively impacting the environment because of indirect land use, this study was unable to prove the existence of indirect land use. Sobowale, Flakkeh, Dicks, Mike, Adam, Brian, Campiche, Jody 2012-01-17 ethanol, indirect land use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Land Economics/Use, Marketing, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119745&r=all Market survey data from Ghana was used to gain understanding of consumersâ attitudes, preferences for foreign food products, and the role product country of origin plays in the demand for poultry. Intention to purchase poultry from the US was anchored on product packaging, quality, expiry date and country of origin. Egyir, Irene, Adu-Nyako, Kofi, Okafor, Ralph 2012 Country of origin, consumer preference, poultry demand, Ghana, US exports., Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Marketing, Q13, Q17, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119723&r=all The potential of three feedstocks: grain sorghum, sweet sorghum, and switchgrass for ethanol production in the top 26 counties of the Texas Panhandle Region is analyzed using yield and production costs of feedstock, processing cost of feedstock, final demand for ethanol, farm to wholesale marketing margin, and the derived demand price of feedstock. The calculated economic returns per acre of grain sorghum, sweet sorghum, and switchgrass are -$45.37, -$410.19, and -$150.17 respectively under irrigated condition and -$38.25, -$145.09, and -$29.04 respectively under dryland condition. The evaluation in this study demonstrates that ethanol production from grain sorghum, sweet sorghum, and switchgrass in the Texas Panhandle Region is not economically feasible given the current price for ethanol in Texas. This is consistent with the status of the ethanol industry in the Texas Panhandle. Almas, Lal K., Lust, David G., Brooks, Kathleen R., Girase, J. R. 2012 Ethanol production, Texas Panhandle, Grain sorghum, Sweet sorghum, and Switchgrass, Feedstock, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q16, Q25, Q27, and Q42, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119757&r=all Beef cattle production in the southeastern United States differs in size, practice, and production type from other U.S. regions. Smaller, cow-calf type operations dominate in this region because the climate, forage availability, and other land use practices of farmers make this type of cattle operation more ideal for the Southeast. Cow-calf production, particularly small-herd enterprises, does not typically require the level of intense management compared to other beef operations, thus making it more manageable for those with limited time and labor. This research summarizes the current practices and characteristics that define the Southeastern cow-calf operation as it operates under the new challenges of todayâs market and operating environment; it also examines the factors that influence the variability of beef production in these operations. Results are gathered from functioning cattle ranches in the Southeast. This research provides an empirical definition of beef cattle operations in the southeastern U.S. and compares cattle operations in the Southeast to other regions of the country. It also examines factors of cattle production and the practices that affect that production. Results of the analysis indicate the following major points: 1.) Only 53% of all respondents that owned commercial cows have fewer than 50 head and almost 73% of respondents with cattle have seedstock operations with fewer than 50 head. 2.) Older calves weigh more at weaning and the variability around the mean tends to widen as calves get older. 3.) Seedstock producers, likely due to the genetic nature of a purebred herd, produce calves that wean at higher weights than those crossbred calves that are typical of cow-calf operations. 4.) Operators that are financially invested in their operation, through the amount of income they receive and the amount of financial investment they have made, seem to be more attentive to the outcome of their production process. Adkins, Tracey, Riley, John Michael 2012 cow-calf, cattle production, triangular distributions, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:120016&r=all This study combines whole farm economic analysis with biophysical simulation techniques in order to achieve a twofold objective. First, the study seeks to develop a multiple enterprise vegetable farm model with a production and marketing decision interface and, second, to determine optimal production practices for Kentucky vegetable growers. Three vegetable crops are examined: tomatoes, bell peppers and sweet corn. The findings indicate that the risk associated with vegetable production can be significantly mitigated with diversification of production mix and with a greater number of transplanting dates. However, this reduction in risk comes at a high cost in terms of expected net returns. Vassalos, Michael, Dillon, Carl, Coolong, Tim 2012 vegetable production, mean-variance, biophysical simulation, farm management, Farm Management, C61, C63, D81, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119823&r=all Impacts of alternative agricultural water conservation strategies are being evaluated in the Texas Panhandle. Stakeholders have expressed concern that all effects need to be accounted for including the regional economy. A methodology was developed to evaluate the effects on the backward and forward-linked processing sectors and differentiated results are presented. Guerrero, Bridget, Dudensing, Rebekka, McCorkle, Dean A., Hanselka, Dan, Hudson, Darren, Amosson, Steve 2012-01-17 backward-linked, forward-linked, IMPLAN, Ogallala Aquifer, water policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q18, Q32, Q38, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119663&r=all Current study analyzed the socio-economic factors that impact farmersâ willingness to grow switchgrass and Miscanthus in Missouri and Iowa. The results of study show that current level of farmersâ willingness to grow either crop is low. Hence, there are barriers to accomplishing to goal of producing 21 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol by 2022, as set by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The results of the ordered probit regressions show that farmers with higher education levels and smaller farm sales are more willing to grow energy crops. The results of this study show that currently growing energy crops is more attractive to small farms as a source of crop diversification, rather than an alternative crop production in the big scale by large farms. Gedikoglu, Haluk 2012-01-13 Bioenergy, Cellulosic Ethanol, Switchgrass, Miscanthus, Ordered Probit, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119724&r=all Using FAO data for 1961-2009, this study characterizes the trends in Caribbean food imports and uses the Central Bureau Statistics demand system to estimate import demand parameters. The findings and policy implications of the study are evaluated in the context of Caribbean food security concerns. Walters, Lurleen, Jones, Keithly 2012 Caribbean, food imports, import demand parameters, Central Bureau Statistics demand system, food security, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Q17, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119811&r=all As the U.S. consumption of sweeteners has increased, analysis of the demand for sweeteners has become more important. In this paper, consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for selected four types of sweeteners is evaluated. The four types of sweeteners are Kentucky grown pure maple syrup, artificially maple flavored syrup, sorghum syrup and molasses. Results suggest that consumers who are at high household income level (above $80,000) and with a smaller household size are likely to pay more for Kentucky grown maple syrup. Results show that there is no statistic difference for the annual household consumption among the four types of sweeteners. Deng, Xueting, Saghaian, Sayed, Woods, Timothy 2012 artificial sweeteners, Kentucky, maple syrup, molasses, sorghum, willingness to pay, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119764&r=all Prairie dogs are burrowing rodents located throughout the United States. The black-tailed prairie dog is a common species that primarily inhabits the Great Plains region, with a large population in Texas. While these animals continue to thrive in many locations, there has been a significant reduction in numbers over the past one hundred years. Several conservation efforts have attempted to remedy this situation. The Black-tailed Prairie Dog Conservation and Management Plan is a long-term monitoring program between the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department and cooperating landowners. This planâs purpose is to develop a strategy that conserves the species while simultaneously protecting property rights. One of the planâs recommended methods for keeping populations at manageable levels is recreational hunting. This practice provides several landowner benefits, including species control and economic returns. The following study explores three land use scenarios related to implementing a prairie dog hunting operation. It provides a ten-year financial impact and risk assessment for a typical Texas Panhandle producer. Jones, DeDe, Mayfield, Gid 2012 Prairie Dogs, Texas Ranching, Risk Management, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119778&r=all Gao, Xiang, Ishdorj, Ariun, Higgins, Lindsey 2012-01-17 National School Lunch, Food Insecurity, Ordered Probit, Instrumental Variables, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, I18, I38, P46, Q18, R28, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119716&r=all The objective of the paper is to identify farmer and farm characteristics that determine the food expenditure in rural households in the Northern Region of Ghana. The results indicate income, implicit wealth, age, family structure, cultivation staple or cash crop, and buying dry goods in bulks are the major determinants. Meng, Ting, Florkowski, Wojciech J., Kolavalii, Shashi, Ibrahim, Mohammed 2012 Northern Ghana, Farm characteristics, Food expenditure, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119742&r=all This paper analyzes the geographic distribution of âgreen energyâ sector clustering in the lower 48 United States using recent developments in industry concentration analysis. Evidence suggests that the ten green energy subsectors and the aggregate of the firms comprising the green energy sector are regionally concentrated. Positive changes in industry concentration from 2002 to 2006 tended to be greatest in non-metropolitan counties, suggesting comparative advantage with respect to site location for the composite of firms making up these sectors. Register, D. Lane, Lambert, Dayton M., English, Burton C., Jensen, Kimberly L., Menard, R. Jamey, Wilcox, Michael D. 2012 Agglomeration, Location Quotient, Renewable Energy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Industrial Organization, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119813&r=all Much of Hawaiiâs economy relies on its unique marine environments, which are threatened by degradation from stormwater runoff. Using a stated preference method of choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis, based on stylized photographs, this study examines both residentsâ and visitorsâ marginal value for levels of attributes associated with Hawaiian beach recreation. Each attribute (sand quality, water quality, congestion and water safety conditions) was significant for both residents and tourists, with water quality being the single most important attribute. There is little distinction between resident and tourist marginal value, except for a greater value lost for below average water quality among tourists. Penn, Jerrod, Hu, Wuyang, Cox, Linda, Kozloff, Lara 2012-02 Nonmarket Valuation, WTP, Beach, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119746&r=all Online simulation and training games were used in two undergraduate courses in agribusiness to help improve student understanding and course objectives. Students responded positively to the teaching activities. The activities also extended the out of class learning environment. Parrott, Scott, Mehlhorn, Joey, Davidson, Kelly 2012 student outcomes, technology in the classroom, simulation and teaching, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, A20, A22, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119783&r=all The U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) levels the playing field of trade between the United States and the six CAFTA-DR partner countries. Half of U.S. farm products gain immediate tariff-free access to the markets of the CAFTA-DR region. All Tariffs will be eliminated in 20 years. Under CAFTA-DR, tariffs on an important U.S. fresh fruit export to the region, fresh apples, declined from an initial base of 15%-25% in CAFTA-DR countries to zero immediately upon enforcement. The specific objective of this research is to analyze the impact of tariff elimination under CAFTA-DR on the trade of U.S. fresh apples. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used for the analysis involving an excess-supply-excess-demand model with monthly trade data from January 2000 to December 2010. The more telling empirical results indicate that for each of the six CAFTA-DR countries, tariff elimination positively promotes U.S. apple exports to this region. Fu, Shengfei, Epperson, James E., Ames, Glenn C. W. 2012 CAFTA-DR, trade liberalization, tariff elimination, Generalized Method of Moments(GMM), Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Q17, F13, F15, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119801&r=all The reduction in the availability of irrigation water and the increase in pumping costs resulting from the decline in the Ogallala Aquifer make good management decisions more critical for the survival of the farm firm and the success of the agricultural sector in the Texas Panhandle. Response functions for irrigation and percentage potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the production of grain sorghum are estimated. The response functions are transferred into value product functions and combined with an irrigation energy cost function to determine the profit maximizing irrigation strategy. Three management decision variables; total water available, the level of irrigation and the water to meet crop ET requirements are evaluated. Grain sorghum yield, natural precipitation, irrigation, soil moisture content, potential evapotranspiration, and percent potential evapotranspiration (PET) data, collected over the period from 1998 through 2007 by commercial producers participating in the AgriPartners program are used to estimate the response functions. Results indicate that the optimum level of irrigation increases as the price of sorghum increases and decreases as the price of natural gas increases. Ahamadou, Aly, Dembele, Mamadou, Almas, Lal K., Brooks, Kathleen R. 2012-02 Grain sorghum, ET, maximizing profit, irrigation efficiency, input use optimization, water conservation, Ogallala Aquifer, Texas Panhandle., Farm Management, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q12, Q15, Q25, Q32, and Q34, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119820&r=all Heboyan, Vahe, Florkowski, Wojciech J., Sarpong, Daniel, Resurreccion, Anna, Chinnan, Manjeet 2012-02 Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119763&r=all This paper empirically assesses the sequential relationships among firm strategic factors, FDI activity, and economic performance for a sample of U.S.-based Multinational agribusinesses. The most important findings of this research is a positive direct effect of FDI on performance, the complementary effect between FDI and firm strategic factors (positive and significant interaction terms) on performance, and the positive effect of FDI on performance given some thresholds of firm strategic factors. Specifically, it provides insights about the direct effect of FDI on performance, as well as about the joint effect of firm size and FDI, marketing intensity and FDI, and capital intensity and FDI on performance. These findings provide evidence that FDI activity is an important factor for U.S. agribusiness financial strength. Garcia-Fuentes, Pablo, Ferreira, Gustavo, Kennedy, P. Lynn 2012 Economic performance, Foreign direct investment, Firm strategic factors, Agribusiness, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, F230, L250, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119711&r=all This paperâs goal is to assess the extent to which producers in Developing Countries have coped stricter US food safety regulations. We approach the question by calculating refusals/imports ratios and their trends for a sample of Developing Countries. We conclude there is a learning process in low value added products. Mosquera, Mauricio, Evans, Edward A., Walters, Lurleen, Spreen, Thomas 2012 food safety, traceability, value chain analysis, trade, Latin America and the Caribbean, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119726&r=all This paper measures the impact of bilateral exchange rates, the world agricultural GDP and third-country exchange rate volatilities (Yen/USD and Euro/USD) on the BRICS agricultural exports using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Two measures of volatility are used: the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of the rates of change of the real exchange rates. We found that most variables are integrated of order two except the third-country exchange rate volatilities which are stationary and thus considered as exogenous in the VAR models. The causality between I(2) variables was tested using the modified Wald test introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that both volatilities (Yen/USD and Euro/USD) Granger cause Brazilian agricultural exports and that the Yen/USD causes Chinese agricultural exports. MARADIAGA, DAVID I., ZAPATA, HECTOR O., PUJULA, AUDE L. 2012 BRICS, Currency Exchange Rate, Volatility, Trade, Agricultural Exports, U.S. Dollar, Risk, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119804&r=all The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of natural amenity on farmland values in the contiguous United States using a quantile regression approach and data from the 2006, 2007, and 2008 Agricultural Resource Management Surveys. The contribution of this study is three-fold. First, we explicitly include variables representing natural amenity and soil characteristics of farmland. Second, we employ a quantile regression approach to examine potentially heterogeneous impacts of natural amenity and soil characteristics at different quantiles of farmland values. Third, we utilized data from a nationwide survey of farm household to examine findings in studies using regional data are consistent at a national scale. Our quantile regression analysis offers some insightful results. Natural amenity is positively correlated with farmland values and its impact is often more pronounced at a higher price range of farmland. Uematsu, Hiroki, Mishra, Ashok K. 2012 Farmland Values, Quantile Regression, Natural Amenity, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, C14, Q15, Q24, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119787&r=all This paper examines the possibility of collocating a cellulosic ethanol processing plant with certain Louisiana sugar mills, chosen based on their strategic locations and cane grinding capacity. The prospective plants are compared based on transportation costs and overall economic performance. Darby, Paul M., Mark, Tyler B. 2012 cellulosic ethanol, advanced biofuels, sugarcane, energy cane, bioenergy, Agribusiness, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, q16, q42, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119656&r=all This paper is designed to validate if the agricultural sector can once again be labeled as an instigator of the late-2000s Great Recession using the early warning models technique. The empirical results indicate that exposure to agribusiness operations does not necessarily enhance a banksâ tendency to fail. Li, Xiaofei, Escalante, Cesar L., Epperson, James E., Gunter, Lewell F. 2012 Agricultural Banking, Early warning signals, In-sample accuracy, Out-of-sample forecasting, Agricultural Finance, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, G21, G32, G33, C01, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119765&r=all There is limited information available explaining the agronomic and economic relationships between yield and nitrogen and phosphorus applications to growing switchgrass produced in phosphorus-deficient soils. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers on feedstock yield and measures of expected total cost, gross revenue, net return, and breakeven price of feedstock produced in phosphorus-deficient soils in the southern Great Plains. Data were collected from a three-year, two-location agronomic field study conducted in south-central Oklahoma. Two discrete nitrogen treatments (0 and 134 kg ha-1) and four discrete phosphorus treatments (0, 30, 60 and 90 kg ha-1) were randomly assigned to small plots arranged in a randomized complete block designed (RCBD) study. Random effects mixed ANOVA models were used to estimate the effects of nitrogen, phosphorus and nitrogen by phosphorus interactions on feedstock yield and the economic variables specified. Results showed that, on average over site-years, switchgrass yield increases from 10.5 to 12.3 Mg ha-1 with the highest (101-kg ha-1) treatment; however, we found no statistical difference in net profitability between phosphorus treatments. Yield and net return did respond significantly to 135 kg-1 of N ha-1. Our results suggest that phosphorus-deficient soils do not seem to have the same impact on switchgrass yield and profitability as they do for the yields and profitability of other crops traditionally grown in this region. Haque, Mohua, Biermacher, Jon T., Kering, Maru K., Gureztky, John A. 2012-01 bioenergy feedstock, economics, phosphorus-deficient soils, nitrogen, switchgrass, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119680&r=all Data from U.S. households for year 2008 were used in examining market competitiveness of soymilk using tobit procedure. Unconditional own- and cross-price elasticities are larger than their conditional counterparts. Income, age, employment status, education level, race, ethnicity, region and presence of children are significant drivers affecting the demand for soymilk. Dharmasena, Senarath, Capps, Oral. Jr 2012-01 Soymilk, white milk, flavored milk, Nielsen HomeScan data, tobit procedure, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, D11, D12, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119743&r=all The utilization of marketing programs to enhance feeder calf value has been met with modest success in Oklahoma. Value-added programs are continually promoted as avenues for improving cow-calf profitability, but producer adoption of value-added practices lags in spite of research showing the value of these practices. Identifying producer characteristics that increase their likelihood to adopt value-added practices is critical to developing successful outreach efforts. Results from a survey of Oklahoma producers on value-added practice adoption indicate that multiple demographic variables influence a producerâs likelihood of practice adoption. For Extension specialists, results can help in targeting likely adopters and developing methods to overcome barriers to adoption by producers less likely to adopt. Williams, Brian, Raper, Kellie, DeVuyst, Eric, Peel, Derrell, Lalman, David, Richards, Chris, Doye, Damona 2012 Beef producers, value-added practices, practice adoption, negative binomial regression, Poisson regression, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, Q12, Q16, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119734&r=all Precision agriculture and autosteer technology are, overall, profitable investments for farmers, as previous literature has established. However, what has not been investigated is whether or not farmers perceive these technologies as such. This research postulates that cotton farmers must see potential for higher profits as a result of adopting precision technologies in order to adopt it. Using the 2009 Southern Cotton Precision Farming Survey and multinomial logit model, this research investigates farmersâ perception of precision agriculture and how those perceptions impact adoption of the autosteer GPS guidance system. Autosteer adoption was found to be significant and positively related to the perceived future importance of precision agriculture as well as farmersâ ranking of input cost savings relative to other attributes of the autosteer GPS technology. Additionally, results show that attributes of the cotton picker is another important factor in adoption of autosteer GPS technology. D'Antoni, Jeremy, Mishra, Ashok, Powell, Rebekah, Martin, Steve 2012-02 Farmersâ perception, precision agriculture, autosteer, multinomial logit estimation, technology adoption, input cost saving., Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q16, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119797&r=all This study focuses on development of agricultural best management practices (BMPs) for potato production areas in Northeast Florida, and presents the results of the initial situation assessment. BMP implementation is the primary strategy used by agencies and farmers to improve the efficiency and to ensure environmental sustainability of agricultural production. Although BMPs are defined as âeconomically feasibleâ and âcost-effectiveâ, economic analysis conducted as a part of BMP development has been limited, leaving the room for disagreement about economic impacts of specific BMPs. As a part of the situation assessment, we used interviews, group discussions, a survey, and a field trip to collect information about farmersâ production practices and to examine farmersâ opinions about BMP development process. Then, partial budget analysis was used determine the relative impacts of various factors (including the implementation of nitrogen fertilization management BMP) on production returns. Finally, an economic model is proposed to incorporate production risk analysis in BMP evaluation process. Asci, Serhat, Borisova, Tatiana, VanSickle, John J., Zotarelli, Lincoln 2012 Florida potato production, partial budget analysis, risk analysis, best management practice, nitrogen fertilization, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119885&r=all Scanned data was used to estimate US coffee demand using an AIDS model. The estimated elasticities have the expected signs and magnitude. Differentiated coffees are complements for regular and unclassified while regular and unclassified coffees are substitutes. These results could be useful in designing marketing strategies by coffee suppliers. Alamo, Carmen I., Malaga, Jaime 2012 demand, coffee, differentiation, Demand and Price Analysis, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119768&r=all Multifunctional agriculture is particularly fundamental to some working lands conservation policies and programs, such as the Environmental Quality Incentive Program (EQIP), Conservation Security Program (CSP) and Wildlife Habitat Incentive Program (WHIP). Farmers can also be engaged in providing recreational and agri-tourism services such as hunting, fishing, bird-watching, farm tours, petting zoos and hospitality services. Using the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) we analyze factors associated with participation in conservation, recreation and agri-tourism activities as a function of farm structure, farm financial measures, production practices, and socio-demographic characteristics of the farm operator. To estimate the functional relationships we estimate a binary logistic model where the dependent variable takes a value equal to one if the farm operator reports in the ARMS survey participation in conservation programs, recreation or agritourism. Results show that the level of farm operator education and cultural practices that use conservation technical assistance are significant at the 0.01 and 0.10 levels, respectively, in explaining participation. Farm financial characteristics were not significant. Location (state where operator is located) is also not significant. Tur Cardona, Juan, Wailes, Eric, Dixon, Bruce, Danforth, Diana 2012 multifunctional agriculture, agri-environmental policy, rice, logistic model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q18, Q26, Q28, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119781&r=all The paper summarizes the harvesting and transportation costs of biomass in an individual producerâs framework versus a cooperative framework using a feasibility template developed in MS Excel. The cost is compared between individual producer having 1000 acres of land and a cooperative with five members each having 1000 acres of land. The estimated total cost per ton for harvesting biomass and transporting it to a warehouse 20 mile far is $25.53 for individual producer and $18.00 for cooperative. The mowing, raking and baling cost per ton is estimated to be $5.71, $3.94 and $11.16 respectively for individual producer and $4.97, $2.00 and $5.85 respectively for cooperative. Basnet, Arjun, Kenkel, Philip 2012 Biomass, Switchgrass, Harvesting, Transportation, Cooperative, Agricultural and Food Policy, Financial Economics, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119736&r=all This study documents the effect of exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate on bilateral agricultural exports, imports and total trade (exports + imports) flows between the United States and OECD countries. The effect of exchange rate volatility is estimated both separately from and in combination with the real exchange rate. In addition, implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and use of the Euro as a national currency (Euro) are included as dummy variables and their effects on trade flows are also determined. A panel data set, which contains 28 cross-sections and 1148 observations, is used for bilateral trade flows between the United States and OECD countries from 1970 to 2010. With an empirical model based on a gravity equation, the results show that exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate have a statistically significant and negative effect on agricultural, non-agricultural and total exports, imports, and trade (exports +imports) flows. Exchange rate volatility is found to have a greater impact on the agricultural sector, while the real exchange rate has a greater impact on the non-agricultural sector. Effects of FTAs and the Euro are always positive, with FTAs having a greater impact on the agricultural sector and the Euro on the non-agricultural sector. Kafle, Kashi R., Kennedy, P. Lynn 2012 bilateral agricultural trade, exchange rate volatility, OECD¬ countries, gravity equation, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119802&r=all This study estimates the carbon footprint of a Henderson County, Kentucky grain farmer under different production strategies; traditional farming and precision agriculture technologies. Four constrained optimization, whole farm analysis models were formulated under no-till conditions. One of the models was optimized without utilizing any precision agriculture techniques and was used as a base model to compare the other three models which incorporated precision agriculture technologies (PAT). The three technologies investigated include sub-meter auto-steer, RTK auto-steer and automatic section control (ASC). These models are used to analyze the different production systems to determine if said technologies increase expected net returns and enhance the carbon input:output ratio. Given the levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gases released by the agricultural sector, quantifying the potential reduction in these gases due to the adoption of PAT is essential in seeing exactly how PAT can alter the impacts to the environment. The results show that all precision agriculture techniques produce a Pareto improvement over the base model. Specifically, automatic section control gave the greatest improvement with a mean net return that was 0.59% over the base. RTK provided the most significant enhancement in the carbon ratio with an improvement of 2.42% over the base model. All of these improvements over the base scenario can to the adoption of precision agriculture technology. Brown, Rachael M., Dillon, Carl, Schieffer, Jack, Shockley, Jordan 2012 Resource and Environmental Economics, Production Economics, Precision Agriculture, Farm Management, Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119774&r=all This study seeks to take fragmentation research in a new direction by looking at exurban sprawl and fragmentation of ownership. The primary objective of this study is to identify the location and magnitude of fragmentation of agricultural land parcels sold in Oklahoma. This was accomplished by estimating two different models. The first model regressed a polynomial in time to determine whether or not fragmentation has been increasing over time. While it was hypothesized that parcel size was decreasing, this was not found to be the case. Over the 40 years of data, parcel size was found to only have decreased by one acre. The purpose of the second model was to verify whether or not a location premium exists for small parcels. It was found that a location premium does exist for smaller parcels with parcels in urban counties more likely to receive a premium than those located in more rural counties. Neal, Kalyn, Doye, Damona, Brorsen, Wade 2012 fragmentation, land values, parcel size, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119806&r=all Using AC Neilson retail scanner data on U.S. frozen finfish and shellfish sales from 2007-2010, hedonic models of each market estimated price discounts following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and as a result of promotional activities, and premiums and discounts for select products labeled âwildâ and âimportedâ, respectively. Gold, Glen, Sherry, Larkin 2012 Hedonic Analysis, Scanner Data, Finfish, Shellfish, Fisheries, Implicit Prices, Product Attributes, Promotion, Labeling, Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Demand and Price Analysis, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119810&r=all Starks, Danyelle 2012-01-15 Agribusiness, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119741&r=all Citrus fruits make up one-fifth of all fresh fruit consumed in the United States. Given the increasing importance of imported citrus in the diet of American consumers, it is perhaps surprising that no import demand analysis of U.S. citrus has been conducted. Using quarterly U.S. import data for six citrus commodities, we employed a demand systems model and evaluated aspects of seasonality. The results suggest wide variations in price responses to different types of imported citrus. The average amplitude and phase shift suggest that all citrus fruits exhibit some seasonality in their imports, likely a result of peak harvesting schedules of exporters. Baldwin, Katherine L., Jones, Keithly G. 2012 Fresh citrus, oranges, limes, lemons, grapefruit, mandarins, import demand, seasonality, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119722&r=all This study applies separate hedonic models to Oklahoma Quality Beef Network data to determine differences in the value of preconditioning premiums for steers versus heifers. Results indicate that preconditioning values are generally lower for heifers but exceed steer premiums at higher weights. Separate treatment of steers and heifers is validated. Schumacher, Stephanie, Peel, Derrell 2012 Preconditioning, Steers, Heifers, Marketing, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119655&r=all Irrigation fuel costs represent a significant portion of rice production expenses. Multiple inlet (MI) irrigation represents a water saving alternative to conventional flood irrigation. This study uses simulation to calculate the range of monetary benefits to MI in rice production. Water savings from MI relative to conventional flood irrigation along with rice yields, rice prices, and prices for key production inputs (diesel and fertilizer) are simulated, and stochastic rice net returns above variable and fixed expenses are calculated for different pump lifts with and without MI. Monetary benefits to MI are measured as the difference in net returns with and without MI. The results indicate MI monetary benefits depend greatly on pump lift and the presence or absence of a yield increase. Monetary benefits to MI increase as pump lifts become larger, and relatively small increases in yield resulting from MI irrigation can greatly enhance its payoff. Watkins, K. Bradley, Hristovska, Tatjana, Anders, Merle M. 2012-01 cost, cumulative distribution functions, multiple inlet irrigation, net return, rice, stochastic, Farm Management, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119808&r=all We analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production in 13 Asian countries for 1998-2007 estimating country-level FE panel model using climate variables. Higher summer temperature and rainfall increase production, higher fall temperature decreases it in Southeast Asia, and increase in annual temperature decreases agricultural production in Asian countries. Lee, Jaehyuk, Nadolnyak, Denis, Hartarska, Valentina 2012 climate change, production, food security, Asia, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119769&r=all We estimate an input distance function for U.S. dairy farming to examine the competitiveness of organic and non-organic dairy production by system and size. Across organic/non-organic systems and size classes, size is the major determinant of competitiveness based on various measures of productivity and returns to scale. Nehring, Richard, Gillespie, Jeffrey, Hallahan, Charlie, Sauer, Johannes 2012-02 Organic, Non-organic, Input Distance Function, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119790&r=all Management of tomato-spotted wilt virus is complex and requires more than one treatment for near optimum results. We investigated tomato and pepper growersâ perception on the effectiveness of tactics using Bayesian Logistic regression. The perceived chance that each tactics will control the disease was about a coin toss. Awondo, Sebastain, Fonsah, Greg, Riley, David 2012-01-17 Tomato-spotted wilt virus, pest and disease management, Bayesian logistic regression, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119796&r=all In this paper, we analyze the impact of the Microbial Inoculants (MI) Technology on apple yields and pesticide application using 2007 farm data. The results show that pesticide usage is not reduced by MI applications. However, there is a significant positive effect on the yields. Apple production efficiency is 37%. Chavez, Holcer, Nadolnyak, Denis, Kloepper, Joseph 2012 Microbial Inoculants, apple production, frontier analysis, damage control, Farm Management, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119657&r=all This study empirically investigates the effects of structural reforms on bilateral trade flows of agricultural products. Specifically, the study jointly analyzes the impacts of three different reforms including financial reform, trade reform, and agricultural reform on agricultural trade. The results suggest that less restrictive credit constraints, reduced tariff rates, and less government interventions are likely to generate increase in total agricultural exports. The evidence further indicates that the impacts of the reforms vary considerably across less aggregated products as well as across reform forms. The results provide a solid policy foundation for pursuing structural reforms in order to stimulate trade and economic growth, given the fact that the index level of reforms has not reached the level of full liberalization yet Susanto, Dwi, Rosson, C. Parr, Costa, Rafael 2012-01 International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119799&r=all We use survey data to study the level of financing constrains faced by new farmers in Alabama post 2008, and identify who got loans. We find that new farmers are financially constrained but not impacted by the crisis. Lending was collateral driven, although lenders also considered profitability and cash flows. Hartarska, Valentina, Nadolnyak, Denis 2012 financing constraints, access to agricultural credit, new farmers, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, G31, Q12, Q14, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119766&r=all As a result of several judicial rulings, the processing of horses for human consumption came to a halt in 2007. This article determines the impact horse prices suffered as a result of the elimination of horse processing facilities. A quantile regression approach is applied and is useful, as horses of varying quality were impacted differently. The authors acknowledge that the slaughter ban occurred alongside the U.S. economic downturn and attempts to account for the recession to adequately asses the policy effect. Vestal, Mallory K., Lusk, Jayson L., Cooper, Steven R., Ward, Clement E. 2012 horse processing, slaughter, quantile regression, price, Agricultural and Food Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119776&r=all This paper explores the potential for the National Farm to School Program to effectively engage with Georgiaâs public schools in order to reduce local food insecurity and improve the quality of nutrition provided to students. A survey was conducted with the specific goals of assessing: first, the current and future impact Farm to School has and will potentially have on the Georgia economy through schools purchase of local foods; second, the potential market for farmers; third, school administrators willingness to buy local food by Georgia; forth, the level of infrastructure available within schools to prepare fresh, whole foods; and fifth, the perceived opportunities and challenges to buying and preparing local food. University of Georgia collaborated with the Georgia Department of Education and Georgia Organics to develop a survey that met the objectives as defined above. There were twenty-five questions total and most answers were formatted in a multiple-choice selection with an option to write any additional comments. The survey was distributed by the Department of Education to 158 public schools in Georgia, and collected, a total of 93 responses. From the data, it was concluded that the willingness to participate exists, as well as the tools necessary for participation. What appears to be missing is the infrastructure that would allow schools to purchase food easily and frequently. Most schools noted that they would be willing to interact with an online platform that would put them in contact with local growers and sellers. Watson, Marissa, Cesar, Escalante, Ames, Glenn, Wolfe, Kent, Kane, Sharon 2012 Farm to School, Georgia, Local foods, public schools, survey data for local buying, food security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119751&r=all The notion of multifunctional agriculture has been actively researched from diverse disciplines including economics, ecology, sociology, and geography since emerged out of the Uruguay Round in the 1990s. In particular, the economics approach represents an attempt to tailor the concept of multifunctional agriculture to market-oriented WTO trade regime. The economics approach has been fundamentally troubled by the lack of concord among WTO member countries on the question of what constitutes multifunctional agriculture. Upon examining how differently the notion of multifunctional agriculture is perceived across the US, the EU, the Cairns group, the LDCs, and the developed food-importing countries (the G10), this article theorizes that multifunctional agriculture connotes different contents in different countries/regions that are determined by their particular agricultural problems, which are in turn shaped by the cultural, ecological and economic characteristics unique to each country. The theorizing undertakes to overcome the Euro-centrism that has dictated the discourse of multifunctional agriculture since the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA). This article fills an important gap in the literature of social sciences concerning the concept of multifunctional agriculture by explicitly recognizing the wide diversity of contemporary agricultural problems across countries. Moon, Wanki 2012-01-17 multifunctional agriculture, global governance of agriculture, WTO, agricultural trade, International Development, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119860&r=all Raisins are one of important products of California. Almost all U.S. raisins are produced near Fresno Californiaâs central valley due to its hot growing season and abundant water supply. U.S. is the leading exporter of raisins in the world. This paper investigates the export demand function of U.S. raisins for the top five importer countries. The relationship of quantity exported with export price, other exportersâ prices, real income, and exchange rate is estimated. The model used is a logarithmic panel data model for the 1992-2008 periods. The model used is in log-log format to determine own- price, cross price, and income elasticities for the commodity. Soltani, Mohammad, Saghaian, Sayed 2012 International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119784&r=all This study evaluates the policy effects of alternative program designs for federal revenue-based farm income safety net programs. Eight representative farms across Nebraska are used to stochastically simulate the financial impact of changing the current farm crop revenue-based safety net with a state revenue trigger against potential alternative programs involving guarantees at the district, county, or farm level. Results indicate that decreasing the aggregation of the revenue guarantee increases expected farm-level payments and program costs for the revenue-based safety net. Jansen, Jim, Lubben, Bradley, Stockton, Matthew 2012-01-17 agricultural policy, farm bill, farm programs, government payments, representative farms, risk management, simulation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q18, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119676&r=all Arkansas is the top domestic rice producer, representing nearly half of total U.S. rice production. Sediment is one of the major pollutants in rice producing areas of Arkansas. In order to mitigate this problem no-tillage management is often recommended. No-tillage is not well understood by farmers who believe that no-till is less profitable due to lower yields offsetting cost savings. This study evaluates the profitability and variability of no-till in the typical rice-soybean rotation used in Arkansas rice production. Crop yields, prices and prices for key production inputs (fuel and fertilizer) are simulated for the rotation, and net return distributions for rice, soybean and the two-year rotation are evaluated for no-till and conventional till using stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) analysis. The results indicate that both risk neutral and risk-averse rice producers would prefer no-till over conventional till management in the two year rice-soybean rotation, and that no-till soybeans contribute greatly to the overall profitability of the rotation. Hristovska, Tatjana, Watkins, Bradley, Anders, Merle 2012 simulation, rice-soybean, no tillage-profitability, risk analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119822&r=all This study investigates the stock prices of the US agriculture industries with regard to anomalous abnormal returns. Do the Accrual Anomaly documented for the entire US stock market less the financial institutions persists in the US Agriculture Industries? Using the risk-free trading strategy of Sloan (1996), which takes a long position on firms with low accruals and a short position on firms with high accruals, we compare ten portfolios formed by sorting the firms on increasing magnitude of accruals for each main component of the US agriculture. We use the SIC and NAICS codes on the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) classification of the six agricultural industries to merge the balance sheet and income statement data from Standard & Poorâs COMPUSTAT with the farms and farm related firms stock prices from the Center for research in Security Prices (CRSP). We find no convincing evidence of positive abnormal returns for the stocks of US farm and farm related firms, agricultural input firms, food supply chain firms and indirect agribusiness firms. This result suggests that more scrutiny of the stock prices for the US agriculture related firms with regards to the Arthur, Bruno, Katchova, Ani L. 2012-02 stock returns, financial assets in agriculture, accrual anomaly, Agricultural Finance, Q14, G11, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119819&r=all Wright, Andrew P, Hudson, Darren 2012-02 Environmental Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119807&r=all This study investigates demographic and socioeconomic factors contributing to at-home consumption of seafood in Kentucky through a 2010 survey. The Tobit and Craggâs double-hurdle model are analyzed and tested. Numbers of people in the household, household income, race and employment status are significant determinants of at-home seafood consumption in Kentucky. Wan, Wei, Hu, Wuyang 2012 Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Seafood consumption, At-home, Kentucky, Double-Hurdle Model, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119715&r=all The goal of this study is to estimate the goods-time elasticity of substitution in the process of home food production using the concept of Morishima elasticity of substitution. Our aim is to find out how the elasticity of substitution varies as time in home food production is disaggregated into the following categories: time in food preparation, time in clean-up, time in shopping for groceries, and time in traveling for grocery shopping. In order to conduct our empirical analysis, we make use of data from the American Time Use Survey matched with data from Eating and Health Module and Food Security Supplement. Rudi, Jeta, Davis, George C., You, Wen 2012 Morishima elasticity of substitution, input disaggregation, home food production., Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119814&r=all Prices for Choice and Select grade fed cattle are derived from wholesale and retail beef markets. Choice-Select price discounts are a key component of fed cattle pricing, whether packers purchase fed cattle on a live weight, dressed weight, or grid. This study identifies supply, demand, and other factors affecting the Choice-Select discount series using an adaptive expectations model. It is found that the lagged value of the discount as well as the percentage grading Choice exert statistically significant influences on the discount, while neither the boxed beef price nor seasonality affect the discount. Hogan, Robert J. Jr., Carlberg, Jared G., Ward, Clement E., Peel, Derrell S. 2012-01-17 Choice-Select discount, marketing, prices, quality, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119740&r=all In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) was established to integrate programs for habitat restoration and infrastructure protection. The Authority has begun aligning the stateâs coastal spending to reflect increasing public interest in the restoration of surface acreage. Concurrent with these changes, programmatic emphasis has been placed on rapid land building (RLB) techniques that rely on mechanical dredges and sediment conveyance pipelines to build new land. The apparent costs and benefits of this approach are increasingly compared in the scientific community to more traditional and natural methods of restoration, such as freshwater diversions (DIV). Given limited state and federal budgets for coastal restoration, advocates of these competing approaches have disagreed on a number of levels related to project efficacy. Petrolia et al. (2009) explored measures of cost-efficacy for RLB technologies and focused on sediment dredging costs associated with varying project scales. This research extends that analysis by developing a series of detailed generic models that incorporate time and risk considerations within a benefit-cost construct. Wang, Hua, Caffey, Rex H., Petrolia, Daniel R. 2012 Coastal Restoration, Wetland, Economics, Benefit-Cost, Marsh Creation, Freshwater Diversion, Environmental Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119817&r=all The aim of this paper is to determine Korean consumersâ valuation for domestic rice and imported rice from China and the US. Using revealed preference data from random nth price auction mechanism, our results generally suggest that consumersâ willingness to pay (WTP) for domestic rice is higher than the WTP for imported rice. Results also suggest that while country of origin and food miles information positively influences consumersâ WTP for domestic rice, country of origin information provides higher valuation for domestic rice than food miles information. Country of origin and food miles information has no statistically significant effect on WTP for the imported Chinese rice product but food miles information has a negative effect on WTP for the imported US rice product. Implications of the findings for rice industries for Korea, the US and China are discussed. Han, Doo Bong, Nayga, Rodolfo M. Jr, Lee, Ji Yong, Yoon, Jong Min 2012-01 Rice, Country of origin information, Food mile information, Experimental auction, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119775&r=all Wang, Yang, Barnett, Barry, Coble, Keith, Harri, Ardian 2012 Area yield insurance, risk management, Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q18, G22, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119779&r=all Melons constitute an important part of the U.S. fruit and vegetable industry even though they are produced only from May through December of each year. Import supplies from Latin American countries are used to make up for the domestic demand shortages. This paper investigates the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using quarterly data on import volumes and unit prices. A static and a dynamic linear approximated almost ideal demand systems were estimated using ITSUR. Marshallian and Hicksian elasticities were used to analyze consumersâ responsiveness to price and income change in the short run and the long run. Kaninda Tshikala, Sam, Fonsah, Greg 2012 Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119729&r=all We assess the economic feasibility of a 10 MMGY biodiesel plant using a Monte Carlo Cash Flow model programmed in Excel using @Risk, a simulation and risk analysis software. The model incorporates stochastic components to capture uncertainty in the analysis. The stochastic components are mainly variables that may exhibit risk, such as input prices, output prices, and expected revenues, and these are assigned probability distributions in the model. The model is programmed with three output variables: stream of revenues, profits/loss, and the resulting net present value (NPV) over ten year forecast period. Results from the cash flow analysis show that average expected revenues from the sale of biodiesel and co-products will be $48.5 million and total operating costs of $42.05 million per year. The economic feasibility of this biodiesel production plant is determined from the model calibration and sensitivity analysis. Using a discount rate of 7.5%, the simulated average NPV is $16.8 million and since this is positive, it indicates the project may be economically feasible subject to model assumptions. We find that the likelihood of the NPV greater than zero is 61% on average. Sensitivity and scenario analysis show that the NPV is most affected by fluctuations in biodiesel price, canola seed price, and the price of seed meal. Yeboah, Anthony, Naanwaab, Cephas, Yeboah, Osei, Owens, John, Bynum, Jarvetta 2012-02-04 Economic feasibility, biodiesel, monte carlo simulations, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis., Agribusiness, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119785&r=all El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections imply anomalous weather conditions around the globe, causing yield shortages, price changes, and even civil unrests. Extreme ENSO events may cause catastrophic damages to crop yields, thus amplifying downside risk for producers. This study presents a framework for quantifying the effects of climate on crop yield distributions. An empirical application provides estimates of the effect that ENSO events have on the means of U.S. county-level corn yield distributions, as well as the probabilities of catastrophic crop loss. Our findings demonstrate that ENSO events strongly influence these probabilities systematically over large production regions, which has important implications for research and policy analysis in the production, risk management, climate change, and civil unrest literatures. Tack, Jesse, Ubilava, David 2012 Climate, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Maximum Entropy, Risk, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119739&r=all Outmigration and industrial composition have separately been the focal points of a significant amount of research related to nonmetropolitan counties; however, few (if any) studies have explicitly looked at the relationship between the two topics. The primary objective of this research is to identify what industry specialization level is âtooâ specialized with regards to outmigration â that is, to determine the level where specialization begins to have a damaging effect on population change. County-level data from a variety of sources is used to explore the impact of both earnings-based and employment-based definitions of specialization on net migration in nonmetropolitan counties from 2000 â 2009. Two distinct techniques (ordinary least squares and average treatment effects) are then used to assess both the impact and causality of being âtoo specialized.â The results suggest that a variety of specialization thresholds exist across various industries, including some surprising positive influences of industry composition on migration rates. Jackson, Ashley, Whitacre, Brian 2012 Outmigration, Nonmetropolitan, Industrial Specialization, Industrial Diversification, Community/Rural/Urban Development, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119780&r=all The production of many crops depends on biotic pollination. As pollinator populations decline, assessments of the potential consequential loss of economic value are critical. We estimate the economic value of pollination services ($608 million), crop vulnerability ratio (21 percent), and pollinationâs contribution to agricultural production value (5 percent) for Georgia. Barfield, Ashley, Bergstrom, John, Ferreira, Susana 2012-01 Pollination, Colony Collapse Disorder, Georgia, Bioeconomic, Value, Vulnerability, Ecosystem Services, Crops, Honeybees, Pollinators, Pollination Dependency, Environmental Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119725&r=all This paper examined cost efficiency differences between rural hospitals participating in the Critical Access Hospital (CAH) Program and a group of non-converting, prospectively paid rural hospitals using both a two-stage semi-parametric approach as well as stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). CAHs receive Medicare cost-based reimbursement, in contrast with the rest of the hospitals reimbursed under Medicare prospective payment system (PPS). However, cost-based reimbursement has been associated with inefficiency in hospital operations and, consequently, concerns have been raised about the efficiency of CAHs. Results showed a positive and significant effect of CAH status on cost inefficiency under both model specifications suggesting that CAHs were less cost efficient than non-converting rural hospitals. Nedelea, I. Cristian, Fannin, J. Matthew 2012 rural hospitals, efficiency, SFA, two-stage approach, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Health Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, I18, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119748&r=all Salifu, Abdul, Grogan, Kelly, Spreen, Thomas, Roka, Fritz 2012 citrus greening, huanglongbing, asian citrus psyllid, Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119788&r=all The paper uses a stochastic frontier analysis of production functions to estimate the level of technical efficiency in agriculture for a panel of 29 developing countries in Africa and Asia between 1994 and 2000. In addition, the paper examines how different components of an agricultural innovation system interact to determine the estimated technical inefficiencies. Results show that the mean level of technical efficiency among the sampled countries was about 86 percent, with some modest increases during the period in question. These results suggest that there is room for significant increases of production through reallocations of existing resources. Despite significant variation among countries, these results also indicate quite a number of least developed countries have high mean efficiency scores, implying a need to focus on investment that pushes the production frontier outward in these countries. Several measures of agricultural R&D achievement and intensity, along with educational enrollment, are found to enhance agricultural efficiency. On the other hand, countries with higher levels of official development assistance, foreign direct investment, and a greater share of land under irrigation are found to be performing poorly in their agricultural efficiency score. Mekonnen, Dawit K., Spielman, David J., Fonsah, Greg 2012-02 agricultural innovation systems, technical efficiency, developing country agriculture, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119772&r=all Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of direct payments. Results show that if direct payments (DP) are eliminated in 2012, a 23% increase in both the target price (TP) and loan rate (LR) triggers counter-cyclical payments (CCP) 80% of the time; and it will take an increase of 48% in TP and LR to generate CCP enough to compensate for the loss in total DP. If DP is gradually removed over 5 years, the trigger and compensatory increases in TP and LR are 41% and 46%, respectively. Furthermore, if DP is eliminated outright and TP maintained, an increase of 71% in LR triggers loan deficiency payments (LDP) 75% of the time; and it will take an increase of 130% in LR to generate enough LDP to recoup the total loss in DP. Under gradual removal of DP, the trigger and compensatory increases in LR are 71% and 92%, respectively. Chavez, Eddie, Wailes, Eric 2012 U.S. commodity program, threshold and loss-compensatory increases, stochastic analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Q18, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119738&r=all We use hedonic property models to estimate the spatial variation in flood risk in the city of Albany, GA. In addition to knowing whether a property is in the floodplain, we have a unique dataset with actual inundation maps from tropical storm Alberto that hit Albany in 1994. In the absence of information on the structural damages caused by a flood, having information on the actual inundated area can be useful to tease out information effect of a new flood from potential reconstruction cost. We find that the discount in actually inundated properties is larger which supports our hypothesis that homeowners respond better to what they have visualized (âseeing is believingâ) and also the potential reconstruction cost in addition to information effect is capitalized in property prices. Atreya, Ajita, Susana, Ferreira 2012 Flood Risk, Inundation, Spatial, Discount, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q, R, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119816&r=all Espey, Molly, Boys, Kathryn A. 2012-02 Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119864&r=all The research addresses the economic problem of deforestation. A contributing factor to deforestation is coffee production. Coffee is an indigenous plant that is naturally occurring in the native tropical forests. However, conventional coffee is grown on cleared forest soil. In the native forest there is the potential for additional fruits (bananas, mangoes, avocados) and wood products while in the conventional coffee production system the only product is coffee. Conventional coffee production often causes deforestation and soil erosion while the organic coffee production system does not. In addition, the price risk associated with the coffee monoculture is high and has proven disastrous to the sustainability of coffee production in past years. Thus, determining the comparative cost and return between the two methods can provide important information for coffee producers. The purpose of the research is to determine the per acre profitability between conventional and organic coffee. This will be determined by researching the distribution of quantity on representative plots. This will help identify any size or scale economies. Determining the difference in profit per acre between organic and conventional coffee production included identifying and working with production stakeholders, engaging in fieldwork, site and case study selection, and determining measurable, non-market benefits and costs that pertain to environmental and community factors. This included, but is not limited to fertilization, water, pesticide use, and timber harvest. Jensen, Jennifer, Dicks, Mike 2012 coffee, inputs, outputs, species variation, Costa Rica, organic, conventional, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119777&r=all This study sets out to empirically estimate the optimum annual replacement rate and age of cocoa trees in order to maximize the net present value of four common cocoa production systems. The study examines the costs and returns of four common cocoa production systems in Ghana associated with changes in cocoa prices, fertilizer prices, inflation rates, and labor prices. While this study focuses on cocoa, the methodology is applicable to any perennial crop. This study uses empirical yield curves and cost of production data from Ghana to determine when and what percentage of a cocoa orchard should be replaced annually to maximize net present value of revenues over time. Successive versions of the model are solved to determine how input and output price changes affect optimal replacement rates and replacement ages. Producers in both high- and low-income countries are reluctant to cull still productive assets, such as trees that are diminishing in yield over time. The Excel based model developed in this study could provide extension personnel with a simple yet powerful tool to illustrate to producers the benefits of systematic tree replacement. This study provides strong evidence of the benefits of replacing trees at the optimal time and rate. Mahrizal, Nalley, Lanier, Dixon, Bruce, Popp, Jennie 2012-02-04 Cocoa, Replacement Rate, Net Present Value (NPV), Production Economics, Q01, Q15, Q32, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119767&r=all The Quadratic AIDS model was estimated to analyze the U.S. fruit consumption using annual per capita consumption data and prices for a demand system consisting of fresh fruit, fruit juice and other processed fruit. All Marshallian own price elasticities are found to be negative and the demand system is dominated by complementarity relationships. Both own and cross price Marshallian elasticities are less than one. Fruit juices are found to be expenditure elastic conditional on the total expenditure on fruits while fresh fruits and other processed fruits are found to be expenditure inelastic. However, fresh fruit is close to being unitary expenditure elastic. After allowing for curvature in the Engel function, U.S. fresh fruit demand is found to be more responsive to changes in income than in previous studies. Mekonnen, Dawit K., Huang, Chung L., Greg, Fonsah 2012-02 Demand estimation, U.S fruit consumption, Quadratic AIDS, AIDS, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119755&r=all The controversy surrounding the Mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling (COOL) has attracted research attentions. A number of studies have reported consumers are willing to pay more for beef labeled with U.S. origin versus beef from unknown or other origins. Despite that, relatively little is known about what motivates consumersâ preference for origin-labeled food products (Lusk et al 2006). Using Individual-Level Parameters following a mixed logit model, we found that U.S. consumers were willing to pay significantly less for imported steak from Australia and Canada compare to U.S. steak. Further, we found that the negative willingness to pay is associated strongly with consumersâ perception of food safety on the exporting country. Lim, Kar Ho, Hu, Wuyang, Maynard, Leigh, Goddard, Ellen 2012-01-17 beef, country of origin, mixed logit, individual-level parameters, stated choice experiment, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Marketing, Q13, Q18, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119782&r=all The U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) levels the playing field of trade between the United States and the six CAFTA-DR partner countries. Half of U.S. farm products gain immediate tariff-free access to the markets of the CAFTA-DR region. All Tariffs will be eliminated in 20 years. Under CAFTA-DR, tariffs on an important U.S. fresh fruit export to the region, fresh apples, declined from an initial base of 15%-25% in CAFTA-DR countries to zero immediately upon enforcement. The specific objective of this research is to analyze the impact of tariff elimination under CAFTA-DR on the trade of U.S. fresh apples. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used for the analysis involving an excess-supply-excess-demand model with monthly trade data from January 2000 to December 2010. The more telling empirical results indicate that for each of the six CAFTA-DR countries, tariff elimination positively promotes U.S. apple exports to this region. Fu, Shengfei, Epperson, James E., Ames, Glenn C. W. 2012 CAFTA-DR, trade liberalization, tariff elimination, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Q17, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119646&r=all Farm operators and spouses have increasingly engaged in off-farm work in recent years. Many studies have analyzed the role of government payments; however, little is known about the impact of health insurance coverage. This study builds on previous literature by using copulas to test for dependence in the labor allocation decisions of the operator and spouse, addressing the importance of fringe benefits to the farm household, and determining how these considerations affect our knowledge of the impact of government payments on off-farm labor. The results indicate that the off-farm hours worked by the operator and spouse are dependent. We then find significant evidence of endogeneity in the health insurance coverage variable. Using the predicted probability of insurance coverage, we find a positive and highly significant relationship with the hours worked off-farm. Further, we find that both coupled and decoupled payments are negatively correlated with the hours worked off-farm. D'Antoni, Jeremy M., Mishra, Ashok K. 2012 Health insurance coverage, endogeneity, copula, off-farm labor supply, dependence, bivariate tobit, coupled farm programs payments, decoupled farm program payments, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics, C34, I13, J12, J22, J38, J43, Q12, Q18, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119809&r=all Job satisfaction is an important measure of utility that employees derive from their jobs and is related to various features of the job such as pay, security, intrinsic values of work, working conditions, career growth opportunities, working hours, and the like. This paper analyzes the relationship between underemployment and overall job satisfaction among other personal and job characteristics of the workforce in Alabama using survey data from Alabama workforce development regions. A logistic model is used to analyze the determinants of job satisfaction in Alabama including underemployment. Estimation results show a negative relationship between underemployment and job satisfaction. Personal and work-related attributes such as education, age, work hours, and gender are also shown to influence employee job satisfaction. Addy, Samuel N., Nzaku, Kilungu, Ijaz, Ahmad 2012 Community/Rural/Urban Development, Industrial Organization, Labor and Human Capital, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119947&r=all Wright, Andrew P., Mitchell, Donna, Hudson, Darren 2012-01 Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119730&r=all This paper examines the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement on agricultural commodity trade using extensive data. The data cover agricultural exports and imports between the U.S. and NAFTA partners over the extended period of 1989-2010. The commodities covered in our analyses include; corn, soy bean, cotton, wheat, fresh vegetables, poultry, dairy products, and red meats. Since the signing of the agreement, U.S. total agricultural commodity trade with NAFTA members has increased three-fold from $18 billion in 1994 to $61 billion in 2010. A partial equilibrium model, in which we derive each trading partner's excess demand and excess supply, is used to study the impact of NAFTA on trade, controlling for other trade-inducing variables such as exchange rates, tariffs, per capita incomes, and relative prices. Regression results show mixed effects of NAFTA on different commodities while graphical and counterfactual analyses indicate strictly positive effects. Naanwaab, Cephas, Yeboah, Osei 2012 NAFTA, Agricultural commodities, trade, partial equilibrium analysis, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119733&r=all The United States is remarkably safe, when it comes to food supply. Nevertheless, food can become contaminated with a variety of germs. According to reports by a food safety group of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, food-borne illness caused by bacteria such as E. coli and salmonella not only take a huge toll on American consumersâ health but they cost the United States an estimated $152 billion annually in health care and other losses. To curb this increasing phenomenon, there has been a reintroduction of bacteriophage in the treatment of bacteria on raw foods. This study utilized a survey questionnaire administered by telephone to consumers in four different states; Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. In this study, as in other willingness to pay studies, a binary Logit model was employed to estimate consumersâ WTP an additional amount for fresh produce treated with bateriophage technology. The Logit model expresses consumersâ WTP as a function of income, education, race, gender and geographical location (States). Based on the estimation results, income was found to be significant at the 5 percent level in determining a consumerâs WTP. In this particular study, Caucasians were willing to pay an additional amount relative to other races at the 10 percent significance level. Also, where a consumer lived (State) was found to be significant with consumers in the states of Georgia and North Carolina having higher WTP relative to Alabama and South Carolina. Yeboah, Osei, Naanwaab, Cephas, Goktepe, Ipek, Kyei, Foster 2012 willingness-to-pay, bacteriophage, fresh produce, logit model, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119786&r=all The primary objective of this paper was to determine key factors impacting the frequency of consumer visits to Texas farmersâ markets measured in number of visits per month. Data obtained from in-person surveys administered in two farmersâ markets locations were used to determine consumer, market factors, and socio-demographic characteristics of shoppers affecting frequency of visits. The results of the model showed that travel distance, number of adults in the household, market promotional characteristics such as entertainment and education activities, food events, as well as education and age were all determinants of frequency of visits to farmersâ markets. Abello, Francisco J., Palma, Marco A., Anderson, David P., Waller, Mark W. 2012 direct marketing, frequency, local, farmersâ markets, Consumer/Household Economics, R11, Q13, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119795&r=all The relationship between trade and productivity has not been established theoretically. Some researchers have indeed found some, if not complete, support for the view that increasing openness has a positive impact on productivity. This study used a Cobb-Douglas production function as in Miller and Upadhyay (2000) to estimate the impact of FDI, exchange rate, capital-labor ratio and trade openness on GDP for 38 African countries from 1980 to 2008. Data were transformed to natural logs and estimated using alternative panel models; which included one- or-two-way fixed or random effects models. The results found trade openness having a positive relationship with GDP; which is comparable to findings of Ahmed et al.; (2008). Yeboah, Osei, Naanwaab, Cephas, Saleem, Shaik, Akuffo, Akua 2012 Trade Openness, Productivity, Africa, Cobb Douglas Production Function., International Development, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119773&r=all Costs, returns, and profitability of cow-calf farms that are organic or transitioning to organic are compared with those of cow-calf farms that are non-organic. A method of matching samples is used for the comparison. Results suggest higher cost of organic production due to higher unpaid labor, taxes and insurance, and overhead costs. Gillespie, Jeffrey, Nehring, Richard 2012-02 Matching Samples, Profit, Costs, Farm Management, Production Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119791&r=all The objective of this study was to examine the economic benefits associated with precision fungicide application system for Florida strawberry production. Given the weather and disease forecast system developed by the University of Florida researchers (Peres, 2010a , strawberry growers can potentially 1) reduce fungicide application rates during cool and dry conditions without affecting yields, thus reducing production costs; or 2) apply fungicide at the precise time of high disease pressure during warm and wet weather, therefore, decreasing disease development and spread, and increasing the yields and profits. Vorotnikova, Ekaterina, VanSickle, John, Borisova, Tatiana 2012 fungicide application reduction, precision disease management system, strawberry, effect on yield, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119658&r=all Selecting the best wheat varieties affects producersâ profit and financial risk. This study identifies the optimal wheat variety selection using the portfolio approach at various risk aversion levels. Results showed that the optimal wheat variety selection was significantly affected by changes in levels of risk aversion of decision makers Park, Seong, Cho, Jaesung, Bevers, Stan, Amosson, Steve, Rudd, Jackie 2012 Dryland, Portfolio, risk, wheat Variety, Farm Management, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119821&r=all Williams, Ryan Blake 2012-02 Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119794&r=all China was admitted into the WTO in December 2001 and this raised the hopes of the US that China will open up to agricultural trade with the US. However, this potential has not been realized. The goal of this study is to determine the impacts of trade impediments and barriers of the market access of US oilseeds and grains in China. A market access variable that was obtained by dividing the total value of U.S soybean and corn exports to China by U.S agricultural G.D.P was regressed on Chinaâs per capita income, exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar, arable land to labor ratio in the U.S and a dummy variable representing Chinaâs WTO accession. The result found per capita income to have a positive impact on market access of U.S oilseeds and grains in China. Exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar was found to be significant and has a negative impact on market access. However, Chinaâs WTO accession and the arable land to labor ratio in the U.S did not have any significance on the market access of U.S oilseeds and grains. Yeboah, Osei, Appiah-Danquah, Gloria 2012 Market Access, Market Access Barriers, U.S Oil seeds and Grains, Import, International Development, International Relations/Trade, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea12:119727&r=all This study analyzed causative factors on TFP growth in Japanese agriculture. The regression analysis with consideration of correlation between factors demonstrated that without further deregulation for introducing new comers, enlarging farm management area and asset management for keeping public capital, agricultural TFP cannot be improved in the future. Kunimitsu, Yoji 2012-01-17 fertility of farmland, human factor, scale economies, public capital stock, knowledge capital stock, technological progress, Total Factor Productivity, Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Public Economics, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lui:casmef:1201&r=all The analysis of the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) and the research efforts aimed at solving the Equity Premium Puzzle (Mehra and Prescott 1985), are still widely discussed in the economic and financial literature. The purpose of this paper is to show that differences in the ERP between developed and emerging markets lead to many empirical asset pricing issues. Using data from both markets, we first provide an ex-post simple time series analysis on the ERP. Compared to developed markets, and in line with existing literature, we find that emerging markets compensate investors with higher returns. We observe that the time varying nature of the ERP in emerging economies, relates mainly to economic cycles, shocks and other macro phenomena (i.e. global financial market integration). Basic statistics also show that during the last decade the ERP shrunk, especially in advanced economies. To improve investigations on the higher emerging marketsÕ equity premium, a standard global asset pricing model is adopted. On one hand, we mainly find that the one-factor model does not fully predict emerging marketsÕ equity premia. On the other hand, we discover that the inclusion of liquidity conditions and time-varying components provides reasonable explainations for the behaviour of equity premia in these ÒyoungÓ markets. Our final findings mainly suggests that global business cycle and financial integration process are crucial in determining the risk associated to emerging marketsÕ investments. Michael Donadelli, Lorenzo Prosperi 2012 Stock markets returns, equity premium puzzle, Equity risk premium. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lui:casmef:1202&r=all Italian SMEs go public much less than SMEs located in other European countries, even though their relevance for the national economy is relatively higher in terms of employment and value added. Why do Italian SMEs so scarcely rely on equity as an external source of finance, despite the option of getting listed on SME-dedicated stock market segments? In this paper we address this question by analyzing the responses to a questionnaire that we submitted to a sample of listed firms and institutional investors. We also suggest policy interventions to provide Italian SMEs with the appropriate incentives for listing. Marianna Caccavaio, Jacopo Carmassi, Giorgio Di Giorgio, Marco Spallone 2012 SMEs, IPO, equity financing, financial constraints. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2011-030&r=all Predicting group decisions with uncertain outcomes involves the empirically difficult task of disentangling individual decision makers' beliefs and preferences over outcomes' states from the group's decision rule. This paper addresses the problem within the context of a consequential family decision concerning the high school track of adolescent children in presence of curricular strati cation. The paper combines novel data on children's and parents' probabilistic beliefs, their stated choice preferences, and families' decision rules with standard data on actual choices to estimate a simple model of curriculum choice featuring both uncertainty and heterogeneous cooperative-type decisions. The model's estimates are used to quantify the impact on curriculum enrollment of policies affecting family members' expectations via awareness campaigns, publication of education statistics, and changes in curricular specialization and standards. The latter exercise reveals that identity of policy recipients--whether children, parents, or both--matters for enrollment response, and underlines the importance of incorporating information on decision makers' beliefs and decision rules when evaluating policies. Pamela Giustinelli 2011-07 Choice under Uncertainty, Multilateral Choice, Heterogeneous Decision Rules, Curricular Tracking, Curriculum Choice, Child-Parent Decision Making, Subjective Probabilities, Stated and Revealed Preferences, Choice-Based Sampling http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:201205&r=all We consider two firms competing both to sell their output and purchase their input from an upstream firm, to which they offer non-linear contracts. Firms may engage in strategic overbuying, purchasing more of the input when the supplier is capacity constrained than when it is not in order to exclude their competitor from the final market. Warehousing is a special case in which a downstream firm purchases more input than it uses and disposes of the rest. We show that both types of overbuying happen in equilibrium. The welfare analysis leads to ambiguous conclusions. Éric Avenel, University of Rennes 1 - CREM-CNRS, France, Clémence Christin, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics, Deutschland 2011-12 entry deterrence, overbuying, vertical contracting http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:201206&r=all E-commerce has grown tremendously over the past decade. This paper focuses on E-commerce adoption within the franchising sector. We formulate various hypotheses on the factors that influence the adoption of an E-commerce strategy by franchisors, namely the percentage of company-owned stores in the network, network size and age, franchisor resources (franchising fees and franchising royalties), and the allocation of exclusive territories to franchisees. The empirical study relies on a sample of 486 franchise networks in the U.S. market. Our findings suggest that the percentage of company-owned stores and the brand image, as represented by network size, both exert a significant and positive impact on the adoption of an E-commerce strategy, whereas network age and franchising royalties exert a significant and negative impact on the adoption of such a strategy. These findings are discussed with respect to previous research results. Rozenn Perrigot, Graduate School of Management (IGR-IAE), University of Rennes 1 & ESC Rennes School of Business - CREM-CNRS, France, Thierry Pénard, University of Rennes 1 - CREM-CNRS, France 2012-01 E-commerce, franchising, determinants, plural form, brand image, franchisors' resources http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/108100&r=all This paper analyses the impact on the macroeconomy of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy implemented in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the Fall of 2008. We study in particular the effect of the expansion of the intermediation of transactions across central bank balance sheets as dysfunctional financial markets seize up, which we regard as a key channel of transmission for non-standard monetary policy measures. Our approach is similar to Lenza et al. 2009 but we introduce the important innovation of distinguishing between private intermediation of interbank transactions in the money market and central bank intermediation of bank-to-bank transactions across the Eurosystem balance sheet. We do this by exploiting data drawn from the aggregate Monetary and Financial Institutions (MFI) balance sheet which allows us to construct a new measure of the ‘policy shock’ represented by the ECB’s increasing role as a financial intermediary. We find that bank loans to households and, in particular, to non-financial corporations are higher than would have been the case without the ECB’s intervention. In turn, the ECB’s support has a significant impact on economic activity: two and a half years after the failure of Lehman Brothers, the level of industrial production is estimated to be 2% higher, and the unemployment rate 0.6 percentage points lower, than would have been the case in the absence of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures. Domenico Giannone, Michèle Lenza, Huw Pill, Lucrezia Reichlin 2012-01 non-standard monetary policy measures; interbank market http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2012-01&r=all We identified 4500 US stocks with year ending losses of 50 percent or more during the 2001-2011 period. We screened our "falling knives" for financial strength to promote a greater likelihood of recovery and minimize any survivorship bias. We added the constraints of Altman Z-Scores, debt/equity ratio, and current ratio to our data set. We use GARCH-in-mean model to control the risk of the strategies. The results show consistent improvement of risk-standardized return profiles of the strategies in comparison with buy and hold strategy. Piotr Arendarski 2012 falling stocks, contrarian investing, financial strength ratios, GARCH in mean model, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nepswp:2011_003&r=all This research investigates how students of political science playing the role of a state leader cope with structural and dynamic complexities of international conflict. This was studied with the aid of an interactive microworld simulator of a fishing dispute, which was designed according to principles of system dynamics. The research question was what type of decision-making patterns characterized subjects who adapted successfully to the challenges posed by the opponent in comparison to subjects who pursued policies that produced suboptimal payoffs. The results of this research suggest two reasons for poor adaptation. First, rather than exploring the consequences of all possible policy options, most subjects had very strong pre-existing policy preferences and were reluctant to abandon them in favor of alternative policies. Second, many subjects did not adequately analyze the statistical data that were required in order to estimate the payoffs. A third possibility that was explored but not sufficiently supported is that decisions were based on satisficing rather than comparing utilities associated with alternative policies. Kuperman, Ranan 2011-12-01 policy preferences; decision making; international conflicts http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nepswp:2011_004&r=all Our paper explores the economic conditions that lead third parties to intervene in ongoing internal wars. We develop a formal model that ties together some of the main forces driving the decision to interfere in a civil war, including the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs associated with such choice. We predict that third party interventions are most likely in civil conflicts where the country at war harbors a profitable industry as a consequence of its high levels of peace-time production and state strength, while the opposition forces’ strength reduces the likelihood of intervention. We also present novel empirical results on the role of valuable goods, i.e. oil, in prompting third party military intervention in contexts of high state stability, by using a dataset on intrastate conflicts on the period 1960-1999. Bove, Vincenzo, Sekeris, Petros 2011-12-01 Intrastate Conflict; Third party intervention http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nepswp:2011_005&r=all A range of theories have attempted to explain the existing variation in the level of civilian victimization across countries. To date, most of these theories have been focused on the influence of the strategic environment in which these atrocities take place or they have emphasized the organizational difference between the involved actors. Less attention is, however, devoted to the possible spillover effect of these atrocities. This study fills this niche by analyzing the role of refugee flows on the diffusion of atrocities. We do so through statistical analyses of refugee from neighboring countries and the occurrence of atrocities in Africa during the period of 1995-2010, controlling for other possible explanation of atrocities. Our study is the first to systematically examine the effect of refugees on the likelihood of atrocities in refugee-recipient states. We do this by employing a spatial lag model with a temporal component with two different spatial weighting matrices. The preliminary results of the analyses suggest that refugees indeed influence the amount of atrocities and that atrocities are spatially determined. Furthermore, civilian killings is primarily caused by strategic factors such as the number of atrocities and rebel groups in neighboring state and the number of rebel groups and battle deaths in the host country. Gold, Valentin, Haer, Roos 2012-01-23 atrocities; refugees; spatial temporal lag model http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:cieodp:2012_003&r=all The present paper present some of the adverse ecological parameters studied for the assessment of reclamation of the lignite spoil heaps of Ptolemaida in North Greece. Natural revegetation was the first step before reclamation began and it was studied. Natural vegetation of lignite spoil heaps was heterogeneous and 7 plant communities were identified, described and mapped. Soil samples geographically positioned indicated that the spoil heaps were heterogeneous and with many unfavourable physicochemical properties. Soil properties were related to natural vegetation and were indicators in assessment of reclamation potentiality of the site. Surface soil temperatures reached 62oC during summer and temperature difference observed between the lightest and darkest spoil materials was 12oC. Between a bare soil and a soil covered by natural vegetation, the soil temperature difference was nearly 20oC. In order to understand the variation of soil properties, graphical interpretation was done with the use of geostatistics in a geographic information system. Cross validation was used to compare the prediction performances of the geostatistical interpolation algorithms. Site quality was estimated from soil properties and natural vegetation composition. The prediction maps resulting from the interpolation techniques help to determine which areas had optimal conditions for forest species development and landscape reclamation success Panagopoulos, Thomas 2012-01-23 Geostatistics; Landscape Reclamation; Soil Temperature; Lignite Mine http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:cieodp:2012_002&r=all Erosion has been a distress on anthropogenic activity since antiquity. The changes in spatial properties in coastal changes in wetland systems have had a constantly mutating morphology, often obliging economic activity to readapt itself to the geomorphological conditions. This has had a profound impact on a common territorial identity based on the land use processes of regions prone to geomorphological change. The case of fisheries in the Algarve for instance, where often local catchments would be a support for economic activity in Mediterranean regions, are a vision of economic and historical activity that has changed, not only due to economic transitions, but also due to availability of resources and natural phenomena such as coastal erosion. Wetland and coastal systems are coined with the existence of over 70% of all human activity, all of these intricate relations of environmental and socio-economic change occur at a spatial level and where economic activity is often present. The manifested physical effect on the geophysical and land changes is evident in the occurring consequences on land cover, but also on land use types and anthropogenic exploration of these areas. A deeper understanding of the changes occurring at territorial level simultaneously on the tendencies on coastal erosion, allow monitoring of most adequate actions in fragile regions. This paper proposes an integrated assessment based on spatial analysis and quantitative spatial methodologies as to allow a methodology of analyzing change, and studying the impacts registered in the valuable stretch of the Ria Formosa in Portugal Vaz, Eric, Walczinska, Agnieszka 2012-01-23 Coastal Change; Territorial Dynamics; Spatial Modelling; Coastal Systems; Spatial Analysis http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:cieodp:2012_001&r=all Through a socioecological approach we intend to apply to territorial systems a similar interpretation to those currently used in ecosystem’s management. Therefore, we will try to consider a territorial unit as a human ecosystem, being an interaction of natural and social dynamics. The persistence of general problems in spatial planning, particularly in the Algarve region, prompted the search for a more integrated approach, which relies on understanding the structural elements and subsystems tailored, in this case, to the specific characteristics of Mediterranean spatial contexts, where water assumes a preponderant role. Thus, the watersystem and his structuring effect will be the reference that outlines the main prospects for the territory. There will be a theoretical exploration trying to articulate ecological concepts extended to social systems, setting up an evaluation matrix for territorial systems, which constitutes one of the tools in a proposed methodological model for assessing such systems and subsystems. The appliance of the proposed model, or its combination with other alike –‘self-organizing holarchic open systems’, ‘resilience analysis’ or ‘vulnerability assessment’–, can design alternative views in regional spatial planning and frame lines of research over several areas with an evident territorial incidence. Bragança, Carlos 2012-01-23 Socioecological Approach; Resilience; Water Management; Spatial Planning http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:cieodp:2012_004&r=all Soil erosion is serious economic and environmental concern. Assessing soil erosion risk in the Alqueva dam watershed is urgently needed to conserve soil and water resources and prevent the accelerated dam siltation, taking into account the possible land-use changes, due to tourism development, intensification of irrigated farming and biomass production, as well as climate change. A comprehensive methodology that integrates Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with geostatistical techniques was adopted to study different land-use and management scenarios. The main objective of this study stage is to determine the soil erosion vulnerability of an agro-silvo pastoral system. The resultant soil erosion map shows an average of 14.1 t/ha/ year, with serious erosion risk (higher than 50 t/ha/year) in 4.3% of area. The highest values are associated mainly to high slopes and low vegetation. The final prediction maps for soil erosion and for each factor considered, can be used as a solid base to create a Decision Support System so as to provide specific procedures for decision-makers, promoting for sustainability of the ecosystems, reducing the risk of erosion and consequently increase lifetime of dam, under various land use and management scenarios Ferreira, Vera, Panagopoulos, Thomas 2012-01-23 Soil Erosion; Land-use; Geostatistic; RUSLE; Geographic Information System http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0099&r=all Does brownfield redevelopment warrant government support? We explore several external benefits in an urban general equilibrium framework. Preferences are modelled such that demand for housing units in the city is downward sloping, which yields a more general setup than the extreme open and closed city cases. We shed light on the relative importance of general equilibrium effects of nonmarginal redevelopment projects and we isolate the external benefits of the removal of a local nuisance, the exploitation of agglomeration economies and the preservation of open space at the urban fringe. A numerical application indicates that local nuisance and agglomeration effects may push social returns significantly beyond the value of redeveloped land that accrues to its owner. However, depending on the price elasticity of urban housing demand and the strength of agglomeration economies, the amount of preserved greenfield land may be small and it only generates additional benefits to the extent that direct land use policies fail to internalize its value as open space. Niels Vermeer, Wouter Vermeulen 2012-01 brownfield redevelopment, land use externalities, urban general equilibrium,benefit-cost analysis http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0100&r=all Employment flexibility is commonly associated to greater labour mobility and thus faster cross-regional adjustments. The literature however offers very little hard evidence on this and quite limited theoretical guidance. This paper examines empirically the relationship between employment flexibility and cross-regional adjustment (migration) at the regional and local levels in the UK. Employment flexibility is associated to higher labour mobility (but only at a rather localised scale) and at the same time seems to reduce the responsiveness of migration to unemployment. This suggest that rising flexibility may be linked to higher persistence in spatial disparities, as intra-regional adjustments are strengthened while extraregional adjustments weakened. Ioannis Kaplanis, Vassilis Monastiriotis 2012-01 Employment flexibility, regional migration, labour market adjustment http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1115&r=all This paper illustrates why fiscal policy becomes more effective as unemployment rises in recessions. The theory is based on the equilibrium unemployment model of Michaillat (forthcoming), in which jobs are rationed in recessions. Fiscal policy takes the form of government spending on public-sector jobs. Recessions are periods of acute job shortage without much competition for workers among recruiting firms; hiring in the public sector does not crowd out hiring in the private sector much; therefore fiscal policy reduces unemployment effectively. Formally the fiscal multiplier—the reduction in unemployment rate achieved by spending one dollar on public-sector jobs—is countercyclical. An implication is that available estimates of the fiscal multiplier, which measure the average effect of fiscal policy over the business cycle, do not apply in recessions because the multiplier is much higher in recessions than on average. Pascal Michaillat 2012-01 Fiscal multiplier, unemployment, business cycle, job rationing, matching frictions http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1117&r=all Labor market consequences are at the forefront of most debates on the merits of trade liberalization. Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have become the primary form of trade liberalization in most countries, and several studies have shown that discriminatory and nondiscriminatory trade liberalization can lead to very different outcomes. Yet to date there has not been any attempt to study the specific labor market implications of preferential liberalization. In this article I argue that the labor market consequences of unilateral or multilateral non-discriminatory trade liberalization and those stemming from integration in the context of PTAs can indeed be quite distinct, and therefore the latter must be given closer scrutiny. I provide a short summary of both the theoretical literature on trade and the labor market and the literature on preferential liberalization. Relying on the insights from those two—largely independent—lines of research, I then discuss why liberalization through PTAs can have consequences for the labor market that are considerably different from the effects of lowering trade barriers in a non-discriminatory fashion. Examples of areas where those differences are likely to be meaningful include the nature of labor market adjustment costs, the incentives for firms to start exporting, and the effects on "job rents." Emanuel Ornelas 2012-01 Trade liberalization, unemployment, trade diversion, labor frictions http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1118&r=all We study the role of contract enforcement in shaping the dynamics of international trade at the firm level. We develop a theoretical model to describe how agents build reputations to overcome the problems created by weak enforcement of international contracts. We find that, all else equal, exporters start their activities with higher volumes and remain as exporters for a longer period in countries with better contracting institutions. However, conditional on survival, the growth rate of a firm's exports to a country decreases with the quality of the country's institutions. We test these predictions using a rich panel of Belgium exporting firms from 1995 to 2008 to every country in the world. We adopt two alternative empirical strategies. In one specification we use firm-year fixed effects to control for time-varying firm-specific characteristics. Alternatively, we model selection more explicitly with a two-step Heckman procedure using "extended gravity" variables as our exclusion restrictions. Results from both specifications support our predictions. Overall, our findings suggest that weak contracting institutions cannot be thought simply as an extra sunk or fixed cost to exporting firms; they also significantly affect firms' trade volumes and have manifold implications for firms' dynamic patterns in foreign markets. Luis Araujo, Giordano Mion, Emanuel Ornelas 2012-01 Firm exports, contract enforcement, contracting institutions, firm dynamics http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1119&r=all How well does the theory of the firm explain the choice between intrafirm and arms' length trade? This paper uses firm-level import data from France to look into this question. We find support for three key predictions of property-rights theories of the multinational firm. Intrafirm imports are more likely: (i) in capital- and skill-intensive firms; (ii) in highly productive firms; (iii) from countries with well-functioning judicial institutions. We further bridge previous aggregate findings with our investigation by decomposing intrafirm imports into an extensive and intensive margin. Doing so we uncover interesting patterns in the data that require further theoretical investigation. Gregory Corcos, Delphine M. Irac, Giordano Mion, Thierry Verdier 2012-01 intrafirm trade, outsourcing, firm heterogeneity, incomplete contracts, internationalization strategies, quality of institutions, extensive margin, intensive margin http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1116&r=all This paper studies the effect of providing relative performance feedback information on individuals' performance and affective response, under both piece-rate and flat-rate incentives. In a laboratory setup, agents perform a real effort task and when receiving feedback, they are asked to rate their happiness, arousal and feeling of dominance. Control subjects learn only their absolute performance, while the treated subjects additionally learn the average performance in the session. Under piece-rate, performance is 17 percent higher when relative performance feedback is provided. Furthermore, although feedback increases the performance independent of the content (i.e., performing above or below the average), the content is determinant for the affective response. When subjects are treated, the inequality in the happiness and the feeling of dominance between those subjects performing above and below the average increases by 8 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Under flat-rate, we do not find any effect on either of the outcome variables. Ghazala Azmat, Nagore Iriberri 2012-01 Relative performance, feedback, piece-rate, flat-rate, happiness http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:359&r=all A large part of the term structure literature interprets the first underlying factors as a level factor, a slope factor, and a curvature factor. In this paper we consider factor models interpretable as a level factor model, a level and a slope factor model, respectively. We prove that such models are compatible with no-arbitrage restrictions and the positivity of rates either under rather unrealistic conditions on the dynamic of the short term interest rate, or at the cost of explosive long-term interest rates. This introduces some doubt on the relevance of the level and slope interpretations of factors in term structure models. Dubecq , S., Gourieroux , C. 2012 Interest Rate, Term Structure, Affine Model, No Arbitrage, Level Factor, Slope Factor. http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:12-157&r=all This paper suggests a new explanation for the low level of annuitization, which is valid even if one assumes perfect markets. We show that, as soon there exists a positive bequest motive, sufficiently risk averse individuals should not purchase annuities. A model calibration accounting for temporal risk aversion generates a willingness-to-pay for annuities, which is significantly smaller than the one generated by a standard Yaari (1965) model. Moreover, the calibration predicts that riskless savings finances one third of consumption, in line with empirical findings. Antoine Bommier, François Le Grand 2012-01 annuity puzzle, insurance demand, bequest, intergenerational transfers, temporal risk aversion, multiplicative preferences http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:ikerla:201157&r=all We generalise and extend the work of Iñarra and Laruelle (2011) by studying two person symmetric evolutionary games with two strategies, a heterogenous population with two possible types of individuals and incomplete information. Comparing such games with their classic homogeneous version vith complete information found in the literature, we show that for the class of anti-coordination games the only evolutionarily stable strategy vanishes. Instead, we find infinite neutrally stable strategies. We also model the evolutionary process using two different replicator dynamics setups, each with a different inheritance rule, and we show that both lead to the same results with respect to stability. Andre Barreira da Silva Rocha, Annick Laruelle, Peio Zuazo 2012-01-24 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:biltok:5503&r=all We propose a two-dimensional Kalman filter approach that, additional to the information contained in futures prices evolution over time, makes use of information contained in the term structure of commodity futures along a second dimension of maturities. This time-maturity surface reflects a complete realization of the stochastic process as an alternative to standard Kalman filtering of a limited vector of futures prices along the one-dimensional time line. Thus, the proposed methodology may use the full information from the entire surface dynamics, including links from all available maturities per period, which eventually should lead to more accurate model parameter estimates. The technique is illustrated using coal futures prices. Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier 2011-09 commodity prices, two-dimensional Kalman filter, spatial analysis, energy markets, futures markets, stochastic dynamic model, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:biltok:5283&r=all This paper compares the performance of three different time-varying betas that have never previously been compared: the rolling OLS estimator, a nonparametric estimator and an estimator based on GARCH models. The study is conducted using returns from the Mexican stock market grouped into six portfolios for the period 2003-2009. The comparison, based on asset pricing perspective and mean-variance space returns, concludes that GARCH based beta estimators outperform the others when the comparison is in terms of time series while the nonparametric estimator is more appropriate in the cross-sectional context. Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, Nieto Domenech, Belén, Orbe Mandaluniz, Susan 2011 time-varying beta, nonparametric estimator, GARCH based beta estimator, G15, C12, C14, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:biltok:5463&r=all A spatio-temporal model is proposed aimed at producing an index of housing prices. A hedonic model with geographically varying coefficients is coupled with a non parametric estimation of the trend, whence a price index is derived. Menéndez, Patricia, Palacios, María Blanca, Bárcena Ruiz, María Jesús, Tusell Palmer, Fernando Jorge 2011-11 house prices, price index, GWR, geographically weighted regression, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:biltok:5568&r=all When working with time series data observed at intervals smaller than a year, it is often necessary to test for the presence of seasonal unit roots. One of the most widely used methods for testing seasonal unit roots is that of HEGY, which provides test statistics with non-standard distributions. This paper describes a generalisation of this method for any periodicity and uses a response surface regressions approach to calculate the critical values and P values of the HEGY statistics whatever the periodicity and sample size of the data. The algorithms are prepared with the Gretl open source econometrics package and some new tables of critical values for daily, hourly and half-hourly data are presented. Díaz-Emparanza Herrero, Ignacio 2011-12 seasonality, unit roots, surface response analysis, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehu:biltok:5504&r=all The aim of this technical report is to present some detailed explanations in order to use the solver CPLEX within COIN-OR environment. In particular, we describe how to download, install and use the corresponding source code and libraries under Windows and Linux operating systems. We will use an example taken from the literature, with the experimental code and files written in C++, to describe the whole process of editing, compiling and running the executable, to solve this optimization problem by using this software. In the case of the Windows environment, a C++ compiler is also needed. We will use the Visual C++ 2010 Express Edition. Pérez Sainz de Rozas, Gloria, Garín Martín, María Araceli 2011-11 CPLEX, COIN-OR, C++, http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1753&r=all Releases of the GDP are subject to revisions over time. This paper examines the predictability of German GDP revisions using forecast rationality tests. Previous studies of German GDP covering data until 1997 finds that revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are predictable. This paper uses a newly available real-time data to analyze the revisions of real seasonal adjusted GDP, of nominal unadjusted GDP, of the seasonal pattern, and of the GDP deflator for the period between 1992 and 2006. We find that the revisions of the nominal unadjusted GDP are unpredictable, but that the revisions of the price adjustments are predictable. Nevertheless, revisions of real seasonally adjusted GDP are hardly predictable and less well predictable compared to earlier studies. This lower predictability seems to be linked to the finding that revisions of seasonal adjustments are hardly predictable, too, and that their predictability decreased over time Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Stefan Neuwirth 2012-01 Real-time data, GDP revisions, noise, news, forecasting, seasonal adjustment, price adjustment http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubc:pmicro:vadim_marmer-2012-1&r=all In this paper we study the role of limited asset market participation (LAMP) for international business cycles. We show that when limited participation is introduced into an otherwise standard model of international business cycles, the performance of the model improves significantly, especially in matching cross-country correlations. To perform formal evaluation of the models we develop a novel statistical procedure that adapts the test of Vuong (1989) to DSGE models and accounts for the possibility that models are misspecified. Based on this test we show that the improvements brought out by LAMP are statistically significant, leading a model with LAMP to outperform a representative agent model. Furthermore, when LAMP is introduced, a model with complete markets is found to do better than a model with no trade in financial assets - a well-known favorite in the literature. Our results remain robust to the inclusion of investment specific technical change. Gao, Xiaodan, Hnarkovska, Viktoria, Marmer, Vadim 2012-01-22 international business cycles, incomplete markets, limited asset market participation http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4580&r=all We introduce a prototype model in an attempt to capture some aspects of market dynamics simulating a trading mechanism. The model description starts with a discrete-space, continuous-time Markov process describing arrival and movement of orders with different prices. We then perform a re-scaling procedure leading to a deterministic dynamical system controlled by non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs). This allows us to introduce approximations for the equilibrium distribution of the model represented by fixed points of deterministic dynamics. N. Vvedenskaya, Y. Suhov, V. Belitsky 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4551&r=all Fossil fuels are major sources of energy, and have several advantages over other primary energy sources. Without extensive dependence on fossil fuels, it is questionable whether our economic prosperity can continue or not. This paper analyzes cointegration and causality between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in the world over the period 1971--2008. The estimation results indicate that fossil fuel consumption and GDP are cointegrated and there exists long-run unidirectional causality from fossil fuel consumption to GDP. This paper also investigates the nexus between nonfossil energy consumption and GDP, and shows that there is no causality between the variables. The conclusions are that reducing fossil fuel consumption may hamper economic growth, and that it is unlikely that nonfossil energy will substantially replace fossil fuels. This paper also examines causal linkages between the variables using a trivariate model, and obtains the same results as those from the bivariate model. Hazuki Ishida 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4786&r=all In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), detrending moving average (DMA) and generalized Hurst exponent approach (GHE) estimate Hurst exponent on independent series with different heavy tails. For this purpose, we generate independent random series from stable distribution with stability exponent {\alpha} changing from 1.1 (heaviest tails) to 2 (Gaussian normal distribution) and we estimate the Hurst exponent using the different methods. R/S and GHE prove to be robust to heavy tails in the underlying process. GHE provides the lowest variance and bias in comparison to the other methods regardless the presence of heavy tails in data and sample size. Utilizing this result, we apply a novel approach of the intraday time-dependent Hurst exponent and we estimate the Hurst exponent on high frequency data for each trading day separately. We obtain Hurst exponents for S&P500 index for the period beginning with year 1983 and ending by November 2009 and we discuss the surprising result which uncovers how the market's behavior changed over this long period. Jozef Barunik, Ladislav Kristoufek 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4490&r=all Using data from 92 indices of stock exchanges worldwide, I analize the cluster formation and evolution from 2007 to 2010, which includes the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2008, using asset graphs based on distance thresholds. I also study the survivability of connections and of clusters through time and the influence of noise in centrality measures applied to the networks of financial indices. Leonidas Sandoval Junior 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4841&r=all In the framework of applying econophysics ideas in religious topics, the finances of the Antoinist religious movement organized in Belgium between 1920 and 2000 are studied. The interest of investigating financial aspects of such a, sometimes called, sect stems in finding characteristics of conditions and mechanisms under which definitely growth AND decay features of communities can be understood. The legally reported yearly income and expenses between 1920 and 2000 are studied. A three wave asymmetric regime is observed over a trend among marked fluctuations at time of crises. The data analysis leads to propose a general mechanistic model taking into account an average GDP growth, an oscillatory monetary inflation and a logistic population drift. Marcel R. Ausloos 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4781&r=all In this paper we propose a new approach to estimation of the tail exponent in financial stock markets. We begin the study with the finite sample behavior of the Hill estimator under {\alpha}-stable distributions. Using large Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the Hill estimator overestimates the true tail exponent and can hardly be used on samples with small length. Utilizing our results, we introduce a Monte Carlo-based method of estimation for the tail exponent. Our proposed method is not sensitive to the choice of tail size and works well also on small data samples. The new estimator also gives unbiased results with symmetrical confidence intervals. Finally, we demonstrate the power of our estimator on the international world stock market indices. On the two separate periods of 2002-2005 and 2006-2009, we estimate the tail exponent. Jozef Barunik, Lukas Vacha 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1201.4586&r=all Financial markets worldwide do not have the same working hours. As a consequence, the study of correlation or causality between financial market indices becomes dependent on wether we should consider in computations of correlation matrices all indices in the same day or lagged indices. The answer is that we should consider both. Leonidas Sandoval Junior 2012-01 http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36122&r=all Why have so few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa been successful in export-oriented manufacturing? This paper uses firm-level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys to discuss this. The paper shows that although firms in most African countries are relatively unproductive, they are more productive on average than firms in other countries at similar levels of development. Further, even though many Africans earn subsistence wages working for informal firms, formal firms have higher labor costs than firms in other low-income countries. The paper discusses several possible reasons for this including the effect of the poor institutional environment on profits and the effect of limited competition on productivity measurement. Clarke, George 2012-01-21 Africa; Zambia; Productivity; Manufacturing; Wages; East Asia http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36131&r=all The analysis was based in 240 questionnaires answered by students of economics at University of Brasília. Using them, it was tried to make a whole description of the characteristics of these alumni and, in a second moment, to estimate econometric models to identify the causes of academic outcome, measured by the Grade Point Average (GPA) of UnB. The models showed that the amount of study and the frequency in classes are fundamental. Although, it did not find relationship between the participation in the campus social life and GPA. As in previous surveys, women presented better grades than men. Quota students, however, had lower GPAs than others. Finally, when a logistic regression was estimated to determine the probability of a fail, the time spent studying had little significance, as long as, the number of absences and subjects were the most important variables. LIMA, Luis C. F. 2011-12 Academic Outcome; Higher Education; Econometrics; OLS; MLE http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36145&r=all Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Vietnam have increased significantly in recent years, with unequal distribution between provinces and regions. We aim to contribute to the literature on locational determinants of FDI by accounting for spatial interdependence between 62 Vietnamese provinces from 2006-2009. For this purpose, we estimate a spatial lag model using maximum likelihood estimation method. We report existence of spatial dependence between provinces as well as spatial spill-over effects. The results are robust to different specifications for weight matrices and inclusion of different explanatory variables and/or proxies. We also report that conventional determinants of FDI such as market size, domestic investment, openness to trade, labour cost, education and governance, etc. are significant and remain robust to inclusion of spatial interdependence. The sign of the spatial dependence suggests that the distribution of FDI between provinces is subject to conglomeration effects. Esiyok, Bulent, Ugur, Mehmet 2011-12-20 Foreign direct investment; spatial dependence; conglomeration; Vietnam http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36123&r=all Using a multi-country general equilibrium model, we demonstrate that when agents face credit constraints in an international financial market, rational expectations, which are ex-post heterogeneous between countries, cause business fluctuations. If the international financial market becomes perfect, only a unique perfect foresight equilibrium is obtained, implying that no business fluctuations appear. Kunieda, Takuma, Shibata, Akihisa 2012-01-22 Business fluctuations; Financial globalization; Sunspots; Heterogeneous agents; Rational expectations http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36127&r=all This Master thesis highlights some basic features and applications of the vanna-volga method and its accuracy when pricing plain vanillas and simple barrier options. In the paper we derive formulas for premiums of vanilla FX options using two versions of the vanna-volga method – the exact vanna-volga method and the simplified vanna-volga method. We review a very common vanna-volga variation used to price the first-generation exotics and the application of the vanna-volga method to construct the implied volatility surface. Furthermore, we briefly discuss a popular stochastic volatility model that aims to take the smile effect into account – the Heston model. Its accuracy and efficiency is further compared with that of the vanna-volga method. In the part of the thesis, which is devoted to calibration results, we compare the results obtained by the exact vanna-volga method, the simplified vanna-volga method and the Heston model. We also investigate the accuracy of the vanna-volga method applied to barrier options. All the plots and graphs in this thesis were produced by programs implemented by the author in MATLAB. These programs are available on request. Janek, Agnieszka 2011-07 vanna- volga method; implied volatility; volatility smile; Heston model http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36140&r=all In this paper we identify a framework of the main macroeconomic indicators an investor must look when investing in a country, depending on his activity business sector. Using a qualitative method of research on the Romanian case in period of 2000-2010, we establish that a series of leading indicators, as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate and industrial production, are appropriate to get a brief snapshot of the economic outlook of a country. The following period, since 2011 to 2014, confirm our results. Beside the traditional indicators, we set as significant the degree of business cycles synchronization with the European Union (EU) in order to predict the next path of the Romanian economy. We use a structural divergence index for assessing the similarity of economic structure between Romania and EU. The results of this study confirm that Romania lags behind EU, offering the possibility to decide the next step of an investor’s business strategy. Tatomir, Cristina F., Popovici, Oana 2011-10 foreign direct investment; leading indicators; business cycles synchronization http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:35698&r=all We study the dynamic properties of growth rates in an overlapping generations economy with credit market imperfections. The analysis demonstrates that in early stages of financial development where credit constraints are severe, growth rates evolve monotonically. At the intermediate level of financial development, as the degree of credit market imperfections diminishes, growth rates exhibit endogenous fluctuations for some parameter values. However, as the financial sector matures, fluctuations disappear and the growth rates evolve once again monotonically. Kunieda, Takuma, Shibata, Akihisa 2011-12 Credit market imperfections; Endogenous business fluctuations; Endogenous growth; Heterogeneous agents http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36139&r=all In this paper we analyze the relationship between economic convergence with the European Union (EU) and foreign direct investment flows to 5 EU countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Hungary) in the period 2001 – 2010, in order to determine if the process of economic convergence with the EU level influences FDI inflows in these economies. We use an economic convergence index, made up of real and structural convergence indexes, to assess the level of economic convergence. The study does not provide us with a clear response to our question. We report a tight relationship between convergence index and FDI inflows in Bulgaria, but quite divergent evolutions of the two variables in the case of Hungary. Alexe, Ileana, Tatomir, Cristina F. 2011-10 convergence index; foreign direct investments; European Union http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36147&r=all This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Point forecasts of some models are of similar accuracy as the forecasts of nonstructural large dataset methods. Despite their common underlying New Keynesian modeling philosophy, forecasts of different DSGE models turn out to be quite distinct. Weighted forecasts are more precise than forecasts from individual models. The accuracy of a simple average of DSGE model forecasts is comparable to Greenbook projections for medium term horizons. Comparing density forecasts of DSGE models with the actual distribution of observations shows that the models overestimate uncertainty around point forecasts. Wolters, Maik Hendrik 2012-01-23 DSGE models; forecasting; model uncertainty; forecast combination; density forecasts; real-time data; Greenbook